r/valueinvesting
本周研究耐克 (NKE) 后得出的结论
耐克股价暴跌75%而营收仅下滑10%，随着新CEO推行回归零售与削减成本的转型，呈现深度价值。
- 股价较峰值下跌75%而营收仅下滑10%，表明市场反应过度，存在深度价值。
- 新任CEO重建与大型零售商关系的战略将提升曝光率并推动营收增长。
- 20亿美元的削减成本计划打造了更精简的费用结构，使销售额微增即可显著提升盈利能力。
- 耐克失去了创新优势，市场份额被Hoka、On和Adidas等新兴年轻品牌抢占。
- 前任CEO失败的DTC和科技导向战略疏远了核心的跑步和运动社区。
我完全理解那些认为耐克已经失去锋芒、而霍卡（Hoka）、昂（On）和阿迪达斯等品牌在美国逐渐崛起的人。这些观点确实有其道理。但如果我们暂时放下情绪化的偏见，转而审视数据及其背后的逻辑——情况就完全不同了。
过去四年间，耐克的股价逐步下滑至当前低点41美元。
要感受市场荒谬的程度：该股目前的交易价格仅为2021年峰值（约170美元）的四分之一。市场已抹去了全球最具影响力的体育品牌75%的价值，而其营收仅从峰值下降了约10%。
此前的耐克CEO约翰·多纳休（John Donahue）试图将公司转型为科技型与直营（DTC）企业，切断与大型零售商的合作，导致耐克失去了创新活力，也疏远了跑步与运动社群。股价随之下跌，市场份额被像昂（On）和霍卡（Hoka）这样的新锐品牌蚕食。2024年10月，埃利奥特·希尔（Elliot Hill）被任命为公司的“救世主”，接替多纳休经历艰难时期的领导权。
自上任以来，希尔推行了一项全面的复兴战略，聚焦三大核心方向：
1. 强力回归零售渠道： 他迅速重建了与大型零售连锁（如Foot Locker等）的关系，这些关系曾被多纳休放弃，如今让耐克鞋重新遍布各大门店。在我看来，这种重新触达“非科技人群”——比如40岁以上群体——将直接推动收入增长。
2. 运营瘦身与财务状况加固： 耐克正实施一项规模达20亿美元的成本削减计划。在沉闷的资本市场上，所有人都只盯着营收（top line），打个哈欠，但财务报表绝不能只看营收！在新的精简开支结构下，哪怕销售额出现一两个百分点的微小回升（可能早在今年夏天因2026年世界杯而显现），每股收益（EPS）也将如弹簧般反弹。
我们谈论的不是一只梦幻般的科技股，也不是市盈率虚高、持续烧钱的公司。耐克是标普500中资产负债表最稳健的企业之一——手握巨额现金，债务以历史低位利率管理，且在42美元的底部价位上，股息收益率已成为大型机构投资者的磁石。他们早已在你视线之外悄悄买入。
3. 投资创新并重振士气： 作为1988年以实习生身份进入耐克的资深高管，希尔在公司内部广受爱戴。他的任命让品牌原有的能量与“基因”重新回归员工心中。他将研发预算转向全新设计与运动科技，而非简单重复已有款式。这一过程需要时间——因为鞋款设计与制造周期长达数月——但很快就会体现在货架上。
归根结底：股市短期是情绪驱动的潮流机器，长期则是价值搜寻的机器。正如巴菲特所说，以75%的折价买入一家拥有强大经济护城河的公司，同时其基本面正在修复，这正是短线投机者与耐心价值投资者之间的本质区别。
所以，请试着研读耐克的财报，理解其中数字，亲自感受它的潜力。
我只是提醒了你一下。
gavrik
At current price, Nike is still expensive for me. It's facing a lot of competition from the likes of ON, Hoka, New balance. Nike seems to have lost their brand appeal specially among the youth. Unless the new CEO can turn things around, I think Nike still has room to fall further
"Nike seems to have lost their brand appeal specially among the youth" - I begrudgingly agree. There used to be a time when nike was considered a premium shoe - and not for the price - but the product itself - it was a bold statement - an assertion of "coolness".
But it seems, to me atleast, now its just a shoe, among few/many others.
This sub should just be renamed to TerribleInvesting. Most the stocks mentioned here are trash.
What are some stocks you recommend?
Hahahaha yeah really.
It's outright scary
Stock falls since years without any indication of hope: value investment!
Did you use AI to write this?
He used Gemini free account to copy and paste this
It’s not even written
“In a sleepy capital market, everyone looks at the top line (revenue) and yawns, but financial statements are not built to reflect revenue alone!” Yep AI
Too rich for me. I'm looking for value plays. I do have palantir on my watchlist but I haven't researched it
Value is what someone is willing to pay for something. True value is finding companies that are able to disrupt entire industries in ways in which most investors dont yet understand. Palatinr will be worth trillions once people start understanding their true potential. Theres nothing unknown or groundbreaking about Nike. The only thing Nike will disrupt is a flee market.
Just a heads up, Nvidia had a forward PE in the 40s back when it's market cap was roughly 200 billion, its now worth 5 trillion. The company's you listed have forward pes in the 100s, very expensive.
I agree nike isn't going to disrupt anything but they have a defined and growing market with a forward PE in the 20s. It's a lot less risk at these levels. If their earnings get back to 2019 levels the stock will likely double from its current price
Nile has to choose the right role model. It was Michael Jordan. I don’t know who it is now. I don’t know which trainer company will choose the right one going forwards. It goes in my ‘too hard’ pile.
Not sure if this ai slop or not - but your thesis seems valid - my only concern is the attention.
Right now everyone's attention is on the ai pipeline stocks, from bottom (manufacturing) to top (llms).
Nike might as well be a good stock as far as fundamentals are concerned, but market is just looking the other way. Not sure when industry rotation will happen, if at all. Do you have data on hedge funds quietly setting up large positions ?
Except it’s not. P/E still demands a premium
Space - speculation. Medicine - mostly speculation/gambling, technology/ai - mostly speculation (ai returns for hyperscalers yet to prove anything despite backlogs), energy - the only sensible one you mentioned.
Yeah ill stick with buying a shoe company that can turn things around. At least until the market gets its head out of its euphoric ass