我对耐克下周发布财报的看法

Strong writeup. I agree the 28x is the crux, but I'd frame the problem slightly differently: the multiple isn't expensive on today's earnings, it's expensive on a denominator that's still falling. EPS is around $1.52 on what used to be a much higher base, so 28x isn't really "paying 28x for Nike," it's paying 28x for a depressed E that the bull case assumes snaps back. The multiple and the earnings recovery are the same bet wearing two hats.

So the honest question isn't "is 28x too high for Nike," it's "what does normalized EPS have to be for this to be cheap?" If they can get back toward prior earnings power over a few years, today's price is reasonable on that future number. If North America strength doesn't materialize and China/EMEA reset structurally lower, then the E never recovers and you're holding a melting multiple. That's why your $10.6B revenue line is the right thing to watch. It's a clean checkpoint for whether the denominator stabilizes.

The part that makes me cautious is the same one you flagged: the best-case signal next week is "decline is slowing." That tells you the second derivative is improving, but you're paying a recovery multiple for confirmation of a bottom, not the recovery itself. Brand equity and athlete relationships are real and probably do put a floor under it, but "fixable" and "fixed" are years apart, and you're paying today for the gap.

Genuinely interested in your 24 milestones. The thing I'd want most is which ones are leading vs lagging. Inventory and China sell-through tell you about the next year. Reported revenue tells you about the last quarter.

I have a big short on Nike. Very bearish on its growth (non existent) prospects

I could see a jump off followed by selloff to new lows. I think it’s a company that is slowly dying and I just don’t see anyone other than those shipping at discount stores who wear Nike anymore. It’s not a brand that can command a premium to the masses and it’s pretty hard to get that back.

$40 today, and analysts expect more downside ahead of its quarterly results on Tuesday.  Says it was expect to rise to 43.00? But with this market probably not

It’s gonna keep falling tbh this is still a falling knife rn

Part of my problem with Nike is trying to figure out if they have no idea what they are doing to fix things or that they do know what they’re but still failing. And having those 2 options makes me know I don’t really have a need or want to invest.

28x for a turnaround where the best-case outcome is 'decline is slowing' is a tough sell, and the direct-to-consumer infrastructure writedown risk still feels underappreciated by the market. The 24-milestone framework is the right way to watch this, because the thesis breaks on execution details, not the headline revenue number.

I don't understand why ppl in this sub love to go for falling knife... There is no moat regarding Nike when there are tons of company in china competing for prices in the same space.