r/valueinvesting
英特尔必须开始增发股票以度过资本支出难关
鉴于其高估值，英特尔应增发新股以筹集巨额代工资本支出并避免过度杠杆。
- 代工管线不断增长，包括1190亿美元的Terafab项目，并获得了主要科技公司的承诺。
- 直接危机已经过去，股价已明显回升。
- 目前处于历史高位的滚动估值，未能完全计入14A节点量产的运营风险。
- 需要巨额资本支出且已背负515亿美元总债务，很可能需要进行4%-5%的股权稀释。
- 此前出售部分工厂股份的尝试不得不以142亿美元的高昂代价进行回购逆转。
该股票已明显反弹，很大程度上反映了不断增长的代工产能管道，其中包括特斯拉、SpaceX、Nvidia 和 Google 承诺参与的总额达 1190 亿美元的多阶段 "Terafab" 项目。
虽然短期危机已经过去，但此次扩张所需的资本支出依然巨大。
为了在不过度增加资产负债表杠杆的情况下推动增长，英特尔应趁当前股市强劲之际发行新股。以下是价值投资角度的分析：现在进行融资是成本最低的前进路径。
管理层此前曾尝试将部分工厂股份出售给私募股权公司，但最终不得不花费 142 亿美元回购这些资产以纠正这一决定。英特尔最初以现金出售了爱尔兰 Fab 34 工厂 49% 的股份给 Apollo。他们最近又将其买回，因为将一家核心制造资产近半数的经济权益让出去，在长期来看代价实在过高。
既然这条路已被放弃，剩下的选择只有举债或进一步出售资产。目前英特尔的总债务已接近 515 亿美元（含 Apollo 的过桥贷款）。
英特尔当前的市盈率处于历史高位。当前股价已反映极高预期，却未充分计入新 14A 制造节点爬坡过程中的运营风险。
若以当前市场价格发行 4% 至 5% 的股权，可筹集约 250 亿美元现金。
英特尔应抓住有利的市场窗口，彻底降低其代工业务执行的风险。从价值投资角度看，在大规模扩张阶段优先保障资产负债表稳健性才是最安全的选择。
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all these semi companies not raising HUGE amounts of equity at these astronomical prices will go down in history as the biggest blunder. and i know everyone is gonna act like it was obvious in retrospect -- even though they were buying at those/these levels
I agree, I think the ones who are correctly doing this are Google
They can always take a down payment for chips manufactured in the future to fund the fabs. That is the most logical choice.
Daddy 🥭 should inject another 10B to pump it further. It’s a matter of national security short term profit.
An equity sale is fine but it only makes sense if it is a strategic partner like how the other AI investments work.
Why is this guy spam posting this?
Spam??
This seems to be a growing theme where the chipmakers themselves start suffering from massive capex. I think we are going to start seeing a pullback in some of the hot shot RAM stocks, similar to what we've been seeing with the Mag 7. I think money may flow downstram to some of the materials science companies like AMAT. But if MU falls, it could bring down the entire market.