美光科技,MU 被高估了
尽管受 AI 推动大涨,但 MU 合同价格上限限制了上行空间,且历史周期性带来严重下行风险,目前被高估。
- 锁定了未来几年的丰厚利润
- 合同价格上限设定在 2026 年第二季度水平,限制了未来盈利的上行空间
- 极高的历史周期性意味着,如果需求减弱或供应增加,将面临严重的下行风险
MU 这两年涨得太多,原因在于 AI 需求推高了 DRAM 和 SSD 的价格,同时供应受限。
但在最新的财报中,美光已表示,他们最大的合同现在设置了价格上限,即以 2026 年第二季度的市场价为准。这意味着未来几年盈利和股价上涨的空间将受到限制。
风险依然存在。MU 在互联网泡沫时期曾一度涨了 5 倍,达到 88 美元,但几年后股价跌至 10 美元以下,2008 年甚至低至约 3 美元。
MU 已锁定未来几年的良好利润,但如果需求下滑或竞争对手供应增加,那之后的前景将远不如现在,股价也可能大幅下跌。
Was cyclical before AI, bud. Have fun with your oil stocks.
Haven’t been following this stock that much, but I learnt yesterday that the vast majority of its growth is because it aggressively increases the price of its products, not because of demand accelerating at these seemingly insane rates. So like… isn’t that bad, they can’t keep raising prices forever.
Sorry you missed the melt up, maybe next time!
No one can predict the future. Every stocks listed on the NASDAQ goes up and down in the long run. However, we do know MU, SK HYNIX, SAMSUNG are completely sold out on HBM memory and NAND Flash chips until 2028. Yes, I don't know whether memory market will peak during 2029 or 2030, but who cares. I know for sure these Ai memory companies will be extremely profitable until 2028. I will easily double my Money holding MU, SK and SAMSUNG until end of 2027. Google, MSFT, META, TESLA, BROADCOM, AMAZON...all committed $700 billion dollars in 2026 and $900 billion dollars for 2027 building up data centers. I just follow the Money. Go MU, SK HYNIX and SAMSUNG!
Its product \has\ changed. HBM is the architectural change that has shifted AI memory needs from commodity to strategic need at the same level as the chip. They are now packaged versus adding commodity memory after finalizing the chip. That’s the entire thesis behind increased multiples for memory companies. It will take a different AI accelerator architecture to minimize this which so far hasn’t been developed.
Forward PE bro DUH!!
😂😂😂 those contracts are guaranteed!!!
We are also hoping that the three memory companies are smart enough not to slit their own throats by building out capacity and engaging in a price war this time around. In a market that concentrated, it is certainly possible.
More random data out of your ass? MICRON has not release any details of these contracts.
What a clown.
You might want to do some homework before spewing nonsense outta your ass. Their best margin led to $80 but lower margins led to $1200?? And this makes sense to you? This is a simple question AI can answer all day long. BTW it was 35% margin at $80.
Supply and demand remain incredibly strong, and they've already locked in contracts BEYOND 2027. Micron just reported earnings that were around 15× estimates, and several banks have raised their price targets to the $1,500–$2,000 range. To me, that all points to this still being a great investment opportunity. I'm not buying into the online negativity or the constant attempts to drive sentiment lower and shake people out of their positions. They can do what they want—I’m sticking to the fundamentals.
It may be cyclical and eventually upside may reverse, but I've been seeing posts like this since mu was priced at $200, had i listened would've missed the 5x gain on my 1k+ shares till now!
You got lucky that some companies decided to waste hundreds of billions.
Hundreds of billions on technology that actually works and can ultimately end my software engineering career. If ai really is overhyped and not sustainable for factors like compute cost & power constraints, oh well guess at least my current job is safer

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