r/valueinvesting
英伟达依然极具统治力，但市场是否过于乐观？
作者对英伟达中期的统治地位持谨慎看多态度，但警告其估值已假设完美执行，且面临AI支出放缓风险。
- 在强劲AI需求和生态系统主导下，数据中心营收快速增长。
- CUDA和Blackwell保持了显著的技术护城河，抵御竞争对手。
- 估值倍数假设未来数年能完美执行并持续交出强劲业绩。
- 若超大规模云厂商放缓AI资本开支，估值倍数面临压缩风险。
看到美光的业绩好于预期后，我重新深入研究了英伟达。说实话，这家公司目前仍在做到的事情相当令人印象深刻。
在2027财年第一季度，英伟达报告营收达到816亿美元，其中数据中心业务就贡献了752亿美元（同比增长92%）。如今，数据中心业务已占其总营收的90%以上，其他所有业务几乎都成了次要部分。
最让我惊叹的不仅仅是芯片本身，更是围绕它们构建的整个生态系统。CUDA依然占据主导地位，随着Blackwell平台逐步放量，英伟达正维持着真正的技术领先优势。尽管AMD正在取得进展，一些超大规模云服务商也在自研芯片，但目前大多数大型AI模型仍主要依赖英伟达运行。
不过，我开始对估值以及这种主导地位能持续多久产生一些疑问。当前股价大约处于过去盈利的30倍、未来盈利的20倍水平。虽然考虑到增长速度，这个估值不算离谱，但它确实假设英伟达在未来几年仍能持续交出非常亮眼的成绩。如果大型云服务商的AI支出比预期更早放缓，市盈率可能会迅速压缩。
总体而言，我对英伟达在中期内仍持乐观态度（甚至在最近回调期间，我还通过Bitget股票加仓了），只要他们能保持技术和软件上的优势。即使股价继续下跌，至少我还能拿到股息。但我认为，英伟达未来三到四年毫无波折地持续碾压市场的场景，未免过于乐观了。
大家怎么看？你们觉得英伟达是长期持有的标的，还是开始对估值和竞争风险更加谨慎了？
The market is absolutely not optimistic that nvda can maintain dominance. Look at their PE
Can we just take a minute and think about how crazy it is that Nvidia is a $4.7T company that wasn't even in the conversation 4 or 5 years ago, and now has a forward PE under 20x and is legitimately looking fairly/undervalued?
The debt here keeps landing on the multiple, but I think that's the wrong thing to argue about. A 20x forward PE only looks cheap if those forward earnings hold, and right now a big chunk of them leans on a handful of hyperscalers' capex budgets. NVIDIA even flags the customer concentration in its own filings. So the risk I'd watch isn't the multiple, it's what happens to the E if one or two of those buyers pull back.
Nvidia is definitely a long-term hold. It won't be a moonshot like the RAM companies but they've built an incredible moat and their products are phenomenal.
I certainly think that the price targets of around $300 are realistic.
One of the things that I appreciate about Nvidia is that they really stick to what they know and are good at. They are very careful about expanding their markets.
They absolutely dominate the GPU, edge computing, and robotics market in terms of both hardware and software. CUDA is the ubiquitous solution for tensor math. Their robotics stack is great and their Jetson SOCs are also amazing.
I always found it a bit frustrating that they only release edge computers in developer kits. If you want to put a Jetson in a nasty environment, you need to count on another company to repackage a jetson SOC into a separate ruggedized product. As an investor, though, I really like to see that they are keeping their focus on R&D and not getting into the weeds.
Rather Nvidia is undervalued or not depends on how you price the industry. I read some analysts report about Nvidia and the way they model it is by coming up with how many GW AI compute will be built by 2030 and calculate a replacement rate then call it the future sustainable revenue of Nvidia. Give it a bull and a bear price multiple and you get the “fare” price range. Long story short, it’s about $200 plus or minus some ten dollars. When Apple sold everyone who could afford it an iPhone, the analysts and investors rightfully expected iPhone revenue growth to stabilize at a replacement level. Because Apple can’t sell you one iPhone this year then two next year and three the year after. AI data centers and AI compute are not like iPhones. If AI tokens are profitable, more compute capacity will be built until they’re no longer profitable. Now, the one thing most people get wrong is they thought when token prices goes down due to competition and technological advancement, AI token factories will be less profitable thus less new AI compute capacity will be built. The opposite is true, lower token cost unlocks new use cases and drive up demand so even more new AI compute capacity is needed. So the pricing model most analysts and investors rely on for Nvidia and other AI companies are just wrong.
Nvidia's numbers are still incredible but any slowdown in hyperscaler AI spending or a faster than expected shift toward custom silicon from the big cloud providers could compress that multiple quickly even if the underlying business remains strong. This seems to be affected micron as well, not in the stocks recent performance but the forward pe is still really low. The markets not trusting some of the spending projections it seems like
nvdia crashed once the crypto craze subsided. from the end of oct 2021 to the end of oct 2022, the stock went from a split adjusted price of $33 to a split adjusted price of $11 - that's a 67% drop. it wiped out 3 years worth of gains. this was after a crazy rise of 65% in just 1 month (from $20 to $33 between the end of september 2021 to the end of october 2021; this should all sound very familiar - i bet mu/sndk/wdc are going to be wiped out in the coming months - perhaps a 50% to 90% wipe out would not be surprising once people come to the realization that the run-up over the last 1.5 years is disconnected from reality (sndk, wdc, and stx are most vulnerable to a 90% drop; mu, skhynix, and samsung will drop \~50%).
i expect nvidia to only drop down to $100 because they actually have something worthwhile to sell in the longer term.
Anyone familiar with [Roko's basilisk] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roko%27s_basilisk) knows NVDA is a long-term hold. Better not disappoint our future AI overlord.
Should totally buy MSFT ADBE…. On and on it goes.
A 20x forward PE only looks cheap if the "E" holds up. The biggest risk isn't the multiple, it’s the customer concentration. If just two hyperscalers cut their AI capex budgets, Nvidia earnings will crash
The railroads were dominant too.
Look how how the price has been responding after earnings even when they smash earnings, and then ask yourself what would happen if growthbstaryed to slow down.
🥴 🙏 market is just crazy and headed for a recession the mag 7 and nvdia are seeing it. Paying too much capex to drive.
Good framing. It's also why I'd separate NVIDIA from its customers here. If the market would reward a hyperscaler for spending less, the pressure to pull back only builds over time, and NVIDIA is the one losing revenue when they do.