r/stockmarket
当所有人都在争论 AI 支出时，亚马逊是否在悄悄巩固其 AI 护城河？
尽管存在资本支出担忧，亚马逊的全栈 AWS 生态系统使其能从多层面变现企业 AI，从而拓宽护城河。
- AWS 生态系统锁定了数百万开发者和企业客户，为 AI 应用奠定了坚实基础。
- 亚马逊能够在全栈（芯片、云基础设施、Bedrock 模型、数据库）变现 AI，不同于纯粹的“卖铲人”公司。
- 愿意承受短期资本支出痛苦以换取长期回报，可能会悄悄拓宽其已经巨大的护城河。
- 如果企业 AI 采用速度慢于预期，庞大的 AI 资本支出将导致大量资金被长期占用。
- 市场怀疑巨额支出最终是否能带来合理的投资回报。
最近我一直思考的一件事是，亚马逊的AI战略与其他公司相比显得格外不同。
每个财报季，似乎都在抱怨他们对AI基础设施的投入过多。但几个月后，又宣布AWS需求增长、数据中心扩建、定制芯片增多，甚至还有更大规模的资本支出计划。
市场一直盯着他们的支出，而亚马逊似乎愿意现在就承受痛苦，把回报的事留到以后再考虑。最终能不能赚回来，才是最有趣的部分。
AWS already has millions of developers and enterprise customers locked into its ecosystem. If those customers start building AI applications, agents and workflows inside AWS, Amazon doesn't just sell them compute, it can sell the chips, the cloud infrastructure, the foundation models through Bedrock, databases, storage, security, basically every layer of the stack. That's a pretty crazy position to be in if enterprise AI adoption keeps accelerating.
The interesting part is that people seem much more comfortable paying huge multiples for companies selling the AI "picks and shovels," but Amazon might end up monetizing AI from several different directions at once.
Obviously there are risks. AI capex is enormous, investors are right to ask whether these returns justify the spending, and if enterprise AI adoption takes longer than expected, that's a lot of capital tied up for years.
I think it's easy to overlook how much of the AI value chain it's trying to own at the same time. Maybe the spending ends up being excessive, or maybe this is the period where it quietly widened an already huge moat. Curious on how others interpret this.
I'm loading on Alibaba and Amazon, they are gonna be the biggest beneficiaries when AI comes to fruition
- Amazon and Baba both have huge cost structures and high revenue. AI and Physical AI are gonna drive cost down. So even if their revenue hypothetically grows at 0% for the next 10 years, they are still gonna see big jumps in earnings growth because margins are expanding through cost reductions. Imagine you're an e-commerce business, and you can get almost the same as a sass company.
- Amazon owns 17% in Anthropic. Baba owns the Qwen model. AI race is gonna be between China and the US. Anthropic is by far the leader and the only big one I see to OpenAI and anthropic are cheap Chinese models like Qwen and Deepseek.
- Amazon both owns the cloud and is the leader in cloud. So they are both gonna benefit this way. For Baba, Chinese tech companies are gonna seek domestic cloud providers because of geopolitical tensions.
- Amazon make their own chips, and they are planning to sell them as well.
Anthropic is not by the leader. Glm5.2 is on par with opus. And its weights are open source. Basically china is trying hard so usa companies wont profit off AI. G luck wirh your investing decisions
I agree with a lot of what you said. With the exception of the Anthropic part. Im a huge claude homer, but their play is 'we want the best LLM'. They rent all their compute. They haven't diversified into things like VLMs, world models, things for embodied agents/physical AI like google and oai have.
Its working right now, the reason I shell out 200 bucks a month for it.... but If models commoditize, where does that leave Anthropic?
I agree on Alibaba. Not Amazon.
Alphabet is pushing as well. It’s got the data.
That's why I don't think it's an Amazon-only story. Alphabet has an incredible data advantage across Search, YouTube, Android and it's monetizing AI faster than many expected. That's what makes the comparison so interesting, both have multiple AI levers, just in very different ecosystems.
Amazon built its own AI tool specifically made for business and it's been tested on Amazons own massive workforce.
When it decides it is ready, that tool is going to explode and a massive sales team will push it. They're in excellent shape on both soft and hard tech for AI - while making a ton of money on more established business lines.
Amazon is honestly undervalued to me.
That's one of the advantages Amazon has that doesn't get talked about enough. They can test AI at enormous scale inside their own operations before rolling it out commercially, and they have the tools to prove that they can improve productivity across AWS, logistics, customer service and the broader enterprise. Whether the stock is undervalued is a separate debate, but I do think Amazon has more AI monetization levers than most companies.
And none of them can back off. It's a race against each other. Because if you aren't offering AI with your existing web services. You will get left behind. Everyone thinks AI is the service. It's not. It's a feature of a service. AI is never going to generate revenue enough to cover its cost to operate. Not in this generation. And not with its massive power, water and hardware costs . Until there is a major breakthrough in technology and programming. AI will continue to be a massive financial burden to every entity that has to have it.
That's the key point for me too. Every hyperscaler keeps talking about supply constraints not demand constraints. As long as they're still racing to build AI infrastructure, it's hard to see any of them easing off capex in the near term.
I am long Amazon and generally agree. But if we look at last quarter the one adding the most is Google.
Last quarter Google added more cloud revenue than Amazon and Microsoft and would expect the gap to increase to the advantage of Google this next quarter.
Google shared they will be adding over $230 billion of new revenue in the next 24 months and I was curious and did some research and no company has added that much revenue that quick ever before.
But this is just one division at Google. Google is killing it all over. Google added $10 billion of new search revenue in the last year and that is more than they have ever added before.
Google is seeing accelerating growth with search at the same time their cloud business is exploding.
That's a fair point. Google Cloud has been executing incredibly well and Search has been much more resilient than a lot of people expected despite all the AI fears. That's why I find the comparison so interesting, Alphabet probably has the stronger AI technology today, while Amazon feels like it has more potential monetization paths through AWS, commerce, logistics and enterprise services. I don't think either thesis is wrong.
I own both and that is what I recommend.
I am someone that believes pretty strongly that the three biggest companies in the world in 5 years will be the cloud division at Google (GCP), AWS and Azure.
Just the cloud divisions at the three.
What is amazing is how much growth you will see in Amazon and Google in addition to their cloud divisions.
I do also own a ton of MSFT and have for a very, very long time but do not see their non cloud doing anywhere near as well as Amazon and Google.
When you need reliability, Amazon is one of the fewest companies that can guarantee it. That’s their biggest moat
The new "Alexa+ AI" suite is pretty nice for daily stuff.