r/stocks
美光财报是AI内存抛售的真正考验，而对中国市场的传导效应并非人们所想的那样
美光财报检验AI硬件支出是否见顶；中国AI算力链同样受制于HBM瓶颈，并非避风港。
- AI硬件支出可能见顶，引发内存板块大规模抛售。
- 中国AI加速器高度依赖HBM，使中国AI算力链与内存周期瓶颈深度耦合。
本周整个内存产业遭遇重创，韩综指下跌约10%，周二触发熔断机制，三星和SK海力士双双下跌约12%，纳斯达克下跌2.21%。这一切本质上都是一场对单一数字的押注：AI硬件支出是否已见顶。美光（Micron）在6月24日收盘后发布财报，成为迄今最清晰的信号，其今年迄今涨幅已接近325%。
这里涉及中国视角，也是我认为人们理解反了的部分。一个诱人的观点是「如果内存市场降温，中国推理芯片将受益」，于是买入寒武纪和华为昇腾作为对冲。但这并不成立。这些加速器本身也依赖高带宽内存（HBM），而高带宽内存正是韩国股市抛售所聚焦的瓶颈。因此，中国的AI算力产业链与同一内存周期紧密相连，并未被隔离。美光疲软的指引并非资金转向中国芯片的信号，反而是对中国芯片的警示。
正因如此，我已不再试图通过个股来参与这场博弈。A股的AI算力和电池概念股如宁德时代、寒武纪、中际旭创等，大多没有美国存托凭证（ADR），而主要的中国ETF（尤其是KWEB）几乎全是互联网平台类公司，基本不包含半导体企业。我找到唯一一个真正同时持有A股半导体及硬件板块，以及腾讯、阿里等传统巨头的基金——CNQQ。尽管它仍是个规模小、年轻的基金，但我目前更倾向于观察而非重仓布局。
好奇大家怎么看：美光指引偏软，对中国的AI算力概念股是看涨还是看跌？
Thanks, Claude
ChatGPT but yeah.
"Curious where/what people are thinking..." = CGPT.
"Here's the China angle"
InsertIngloriousBastardsGIF<. Three please!
lol what a bot. Somehow it’s missing the analysis that China is trying to ramp up their own chip production. Like CXMT and some other Chinese chip producer is ramping up production and is being listed on the Shanghai stock market or something.
Is it a scam? Maybe. But I wonder if institutions are worried about that and not the HBM angle like Mr ChatGPT thinks
Where was the weak read-through? MU blew earnings to smithereens.
Another ETF option that has a fairly high CATL allocation is
KGRN
KraneShares MSCI China Clean Technology Index ETF
Might not be exactly what youre looking for as it also holds quite a bit of electric car companies and some clean power companies
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