美联储加息概率逼近70%，恒生指数周二跌1.82%，跑输上证的1.37%

投资者摘要看空

港股科技股因联系汇率和美联储鹰派面临结构性逆风，而A股受益于央行宽松。

看多要点

中国央行宽松及历史低位的LPR为大陆A股提供结构性顺风。

看空要点

港币挂钩美元的联系汇率制迫使港股输入美联储鹰派立场和高利率。

BABA 0700.HK 3690.HK 300750.SZ降息与宏观半导体

帖子正文

高质量模型翻译结果

美元指数突破101，香港的美元挂钩机制直接传导了这一影响（金管局基准利率为4.0%，HIBOR压力上升），而中国人民银行则维持创纪录低位的贷款市场报价利率（LPR），政策倾向明显偏宽松。同一批中国科技公司，却处于截然不同的利率环境中。

我查看了我的KWEB持仓，才意识到自己实际上只持有香港部分的头寸。KWEB不持有任何A股。CQQQ采用25%的纳入因子。两者都无法真正提供对内地中国科技公司的敞口。

A股标的（如宁德时代、寒武纪、中集安瑞科）受益于央行宽松政策带来的利好。而港股标的（腾讯、阿里巴巴、美团）则承受着美联储鹰派立场传导来的压力。这并非偶然，而是挂钩机制正按其设计初衷发挥作用。

我筛选了那些真正重仓A股的美股上市ETF。CNQQ的A股与港股权重约为58:42，但该基金直到2025年9月才推出，资产管理规模约1650万美元，流动性存疑。大多数A股半导体和电池类公司甚至没有ADR。

利率分化是结构性的，并随着每次美联储重新定价而进一步扩大。

讨论 · 高赞评论12 条精选

u/Suspicious_Green8013 16· 2 天前

This is the split market nobody talks about enough

HK stocks are basically US stocks in disguise because of the peg

When the Fed hikes HK hikes with it

Meanwhile A shares get the PBOC easing treatment

Same sector different central banks different outcomes

KWEB holders are essentially betting on the Fed not hiking further not on China tech

That is a very different trade than what most people think they are making

u/sonicking12 2· 2 天前

Not really. Try comparing VTI and Heng Seng Index in the last 5 years

u/gym_fun -1· 2 天前

HSI follows US macro in the sense that HK mimic the monetary policy from the US Federal Reserve. It doesn't follow the movements proportionally because of the different stock compositions.

In reality, many HK-based investors and traders just buy US stocks. There are reports of a considerable number of portfolios achieving 3-digit YTD returns at some point because they hold high-performing US stocks. In the meantime, China strictly restricts mainland Chinese investors from buying US stocks as more talked about achieving financial independence from the US market.

u/sonicking12 2· 1 天前

Pointless statements

You say the two indices are similar but in reality they offer very different returns.

You say some investors do well by buying specific stocks. That's true everywhere.

u/Xollector 1· 23 小时前

That’s not true at all… hk stock composition is nothing like US stocks. Not only that their income % domestic vs foreign is also different, so

1) currency effect is not necessarily the same

2) market composition and PE significantly different

By all means and purpose HK is significantly undervalued compared to US. However doesn’t mean it will go up as it’s structurally less speculative and technically more bearish short term with some overhangs ( such as Futu/tiger liquidation etc)

u/Suspicious_Green8013 11· 2 天前

This is exactly why I stopped buying KWEB

You think you are getting China tech exposure but you are really getting a dollar rate play

The Fed hikes and Hong Kong stocks bleed while the A share names keep running on PBOC liquidity

It is the same country two different central banks two completely different outcomes

If you want real China tech exposure you need a different ETF or direct A share access

u/loud_economy1201 3· 2 天前

wow, i learned a lot with this post ! thank you verry much for the analyse

u/Hefty-Newspaper5796 2· 2 天前

A has little investment value. It’s a very skewed market and largely controlled by their state capital.

u/sunburn74 1· 1 天前

This is generally my view point on Chinese stocks

u/ProfessorShort6711 1· 2 天前

I hope that I can invest in China directly one day.

u/TortyPapa 0· 2 天前

Already priced in my dude.

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