韩国市场本周触发两次熔断，其中一次发生在MU财报大超预期之后。这是否值得担忧？

投资者摘要中性

作者担忧韩国市场的极端波动和杠杆打压可能会传染至美股，尽管MU财报强劲。

看多要点

MU大幅超预期的财报表明存储芯片领域存在强劲的潜在需求。
尽管亚洲市场出现极端波动，美股目前并未表现出任何恐慌情绪。

看空要点

韩国市场的极端波动和潜在的杠杆打压可能导致失控性抛售。
亚洲市场的剧烈抛售可能会传染至美国市场，尤其是考虑到其与AI叙事的紧密联系。

MU半导体财报季降息与宏观

帖子正文

高质量模型翻译结果

本周韩国市场波动似乎已达到极端水平。市场先是周一晚上触发熔断，周四晚上再次触发。第二次触发令人略感意外，毕竟美光刚刚发布了大幅超出预期的财报。

一周内出现两次熔断已属不寻常。在美光财报显示三星和SK海力士表现强劲之后，再次触发熔断，开始让我感到担忧。这表明抛售行为并非由业绩驱动，背后可能另有隐情。

本周我看到一些略显令人不安的韩国消息。立法者提议对未实现收益征税，而SK海力士也暗示其正小幅减少HBM生产。但最让我担心的是韩国市场的极高杠杆水平，以及立法者计划打压杠杆使用的传闻。我在想，立法者与极端市场波动是否会加剧杠杆散户投资者的恐慌情绪，进而引发失控抛售。

此外，昨晚亚洲其他市场也全线走低，各大指数普遍下跌2%至4%。或许存在我尚未考虑到的更大范围宏观因素，导致亚洲市场出现剧烈波动。

目前美国股市尚未表现出任何恐慌迹象。但我担心，如果亚洲持续剧烈抛售，可能会对美国市场产生传染效应，尤其是因为韩国的头部股票与人工智能叙事高度相关。

讨论 · 高赞评论15 条精选

u/Swimming-Message-796 156· 2 天前高赞

All my korean friends are gambling addicts and were heavily leveraged in memory stocks and it seems a relatively common thing to do with their friends as well. I imagine any sustained drop in share price is going to cause some insane panic whenever it happens so I'm not too surprised with the volatility. Personally, I've been buying leaps in the big names like Microsoft, Netflix, Meta, etc as I imagine that once the free money stops and there's hesitancy, a lot of money is going to rotate back to these big names that have been going on sale.

u/kradreyals 27· 2 天前

Yeah, my theory is that since these companies are spending so much, institutions are selling mega caps themselves, causing them to dip, to pump up the targets of their spending. Then once they are happy with the gains of SMH or DRAM, they sell off to top off the discounted mega caps. It's really dumb. I hold XLK and its obvious when it stays almost flat, the megacaps drop 10+%, and the SMH moonshot 200%. Broad index fund holders are being used as liquidity.

u/Alestasis 16· 2 天前

Jfc, koreans do love gambling and wasting money. They are massive p2w gamers too

u/ShowerMotor 127· 2 天前高赞

I bought MU today on this dip. Monday it all should tank 20%, you are all welcome.

u/spicykimchi_inmybutt 30· 2 天前

I also went all in on DRAM again today, and it tanked lmao

u/Wannabe_Physicist 56· 2 天前高赞

Those guys say no

u/puffyshirt99 43· 2 天前

According to my Korean friends, the Korean retail investors are taking massive loans to buy memory stock and since MU shot up, they sold all and pocket the profits

u/hkmamike 31· 2 天前

Korea market is now extremely leveraged and priced in a lot of growth, pullbacks are normal.

u/Street-Corporation 31· 2 天前

It’s a feature of their market. It happens all the time.

u/SadComparison9352 30· 2 天前

index dominated by 2 stocks that are very volatile, and the index has gone up 3 times since last year, so circuit breakers is very normal.

u/spicykimchi_inmybutt 30· 2 天前

I'm Korean, and idk

u/Lisaismyfav 32· 2 天前

Username checks out

u/Halbaras 23· 2 天前

Korea's market is literally more than 50% two stocks - SK Hunix and Samsung. Both are tied to the same specific sub-sector and are being heavily pumped by foreign speculators and leveraged domestic retail investors. Both think they're get rich quick schemes.

That's a recipe for massive volatility and concentration risk. Most of the people complaining about Korean circuit breakers are the same people who see no issues with an entire country's stock market almost tripling in under than a year.

However, all the hype has made people forget where their memory stocks' 'real' earnings are ultimately coming from - finite cashflows, debt and dilution from the Mag7, SpaceX, Oracle, OpenAI and Anthropic. Nobody has made the CapEx profitable yet, and as soon as one or more of them capitulates, its lights out for semis.

u/RoboticGreg 18· 2 天前

Y'all need to remember Samsung and SK Hynix is like 55% of the Korean stock market. It's very close to trading single stocks

u/not_my_monkeys_ 17· 2 天前

They sell unbelievable volume of ads. Enough to dwarf the costs of all the dumb shit that their CEO does.

I won’t touch it either.

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