韩国市场本周触发两次熔断，其中一次在 MU 财报大超预期之后，这值得担忧吗？

投资者摘要看多

作者担忧韩国市场剧烈波动及杠杆监管可能传染至美股，尽管 MU 财报表现强劲。

看多要点

美光交出超预期的强劲财报，表明存储芯片行业基本面强劲。
美股尚未出现恐慌，暗示亚洲抛售目前可能得到控制。

看空要点

韩国市场的剧烈波动和熔断暗示了高杠杆和潜在监管打击等深层问题。
对未实现收益征税的提议以及 HBM 生产的转变可能对韩国科技巨头产生负面影响。
亚洲市场普遍下跌引发了对宏观现象的担忧，这可能最终传染至美股。

MU半导体财报季降息与宏观

帖子正文

高质量模型翻译结果

本周韩国市场波动似乎已达到极端水平。市场在周一晚间首次触发熔断机制，周四晚间再次触发。第二次触发令人略感意外，毕竟美光刚刚发布了大幅超出预期的财报。

一周内出现两次熔断已经极为罕见。在美光财报显示三星和SK海力士表现强劲后，再次触发熔断，开始让我感到担忧。这表明抛售行为并非由业绩驱动，背后可能另有隐情。

本周我看到一些略显令人不安的韩国消息。立法者提议对未实现收益征税，SK海力士也暗示其正小幅减少HBM产能。但最让我担心的是韩国市场的极高杠杆水平，以及立法者计划打击杠杆使用的传闻。我怀疑，立法者与极端市场波动是否会加剧杠杆散户投资者的恐慌情绪，进而引发失控抛售。

此外，昨晚亚洲其他市场也全线走低，普遍下跌2%至4%。或许存在我尚未考虑到的更广泛的宏观因素，导致亚洲市场剧烈波动。

目前美国股市尚无明显恐慌迹象。但我担心，如果亚洲持续剧烈抛售，可能会对美国市场产生传染效应，尤其是因为韩国的龙头股与人工智能叙事高度相关。

讨论 · 高赞评论15 条精选

u/CD274 67· 2 天前高赞

Did you look into why? Korea introduced 2x ETFs late May and everyone got margin called

u/NurUrl 20· 2 天前

that margin guy sure love to make calls

u/Powerful_Wishbone25 6· 2 天前

Wait, his name is Margin? I thought it was Martin. Makes much more sense now!

u/guyoffthegrid 31· 2 天前

Yes. Sell. Everything.

u/Thawayshegoes 18· 2 天前

I sold everything. House, cars, wife and kids. What now?

u/joeyjoejoeshabbadude 26· 2 天前

Buy it all back at a higher price!

u/marcus55 28· 2 天前

It just means the electricity went off for a bit i wouldn't worry

u/DegreeConscious9628 27· 2 天前

When their main index is 60% in two companies what could go wrong

u/Odd-Professional3010 6· 2 天前

I'm afraid US market is headed in this direction with SnP500 concentration

u/Dick_chopper 6· 2 天前

Not even close

u/stuntondeezh0es 23· 2 天前

Kospi hasn’t had a circuit breaker since 2020 during Covid and now they’ve had 4 YTD. This ain’t normal. To say the US market has no panic is untrue. Rate hikes, debt, inflation, Iran war, energy crisis. See June 5. Add that to bubble fears, including today’s news about OpenAI delaying IPO to try and grab more cash from the market. This whole thing is a ponzi

u/IG_Triple_OG 13· 2 天前

No keep buying MU 🚀

u/apexglide1 13· 2 天前

The KOSPI is in the limelight for the first time in history and unsurprisingly Koreans are aggressively trying to ride the wave. IMO this is a combination of locals levering up to buy and subsequently taking profits. The fundamentals of SKH, Samsung, micron, KXIA, are all pretty solid and I’m not too concerned. In fact, I’m long DRAM because we’re starting to see demand for memory from other parts of the market like robotics. But it is pretty wild to wake up to sizable drops in your positions when the companies are executing really well.

u/Boys4Ever 5· 2 天前

South Korea reliving our 1920s

u/apexglide1 5· 2 天前

Definite possibility. But if the fundamentals and future prospects remain solid but the stock price keeps dropping, wouldn’t you consider that a buying opportunity? Sounds like someone else’s margin call is my opportunity.

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