r/valueinvesting
如果今天必须在英伟达之外选一家 AI 半导体公司，我可能会倾向于博通而不是 AMD。
作者长期看好博通胜过AMD，认为博通在AI基础设施和定制ASIC合作中角色更多元。
- AI基础设施建设利好提供网络、定制ASIC和软件层的公司。
- 投资定制AI芯片的超大规模客户选择与博通合作，而非直接竞争。
- AMD凭借EPYC和Instinct GPU执行力强劲，凭借较小基数具备巨大上涨空间。
- 博通面临极高的市场预期，导致每次财报都面临极高的业绩门槛。
这并不是因为我认为AMD公司不如其他公司。恰恰相反，过去几年里，AMD的表现极为出色。EPYC已经实实在在地夺得了服务器市场的份额，Instinct GPU终于在超大规模数据中心中获得了势头，而Lisa Su也打造了科技行业中最为精彩的逆袭故事之一。
但博通（Broadcom）给人的感觉是正在玩一个完全不同的游戏。AMD仍然主要在竞争卖出更多芯片，而博通则在直接参与构建AI基础设施本身。它背后涉及网络、交换、定制AI ASIC、高速连接，现在还加上了VMware，为其增添了另一层软件能力。AI集群建得越多，博通的身影就越显眼。
像谷歌、Meta，甚至如今的OpenAI这样的公司，都在大力投资自研AI芯片。但博通并没有与这些项目竞争，反而在帮助建设其中许多项目。最近OpenAI宣布定制推理芯片，再次提醒了这一点。
这并不意味着AMD无法继续获胜。如果MI350以及未来的Instinct系列持续进步，仍有巨大的AI加速器市场可供拓展。由于AMD目前基数较小，只要能持续抢占市场份额，其增长潜力可能更大。
我只是觉得博通有更多方式可以赢。AI网络、通用硅片、定制ASIC、VMware、企业基础设施——这家公司似乎没有押注于某一个产品周期。它几乎正变成AI基础设施背后的‘幕后推手’。
颇具讽刺意味的是，博通最大的风险或许正是过高的预期。市场早已认定它是AI赢家，因此每一份财报都会被放在极高的标准下审视。相比之下，AMD更像是仍需证明自己，而博通则必须一遍又一遍地证明自己依然强大。
如果我只能在未来十年持有其中一只股票，我可能会选择博通。不是因为我认为它会打造出最好的AI芯片，而是因为它显然决心无论谁的AI芯片最终胜出，它都一定要赚钱。
Nvidia, broadcom and TSM makes most sense to me at current valuations and estimated future cash flows/EPS growth.
I can definitely see that. Those three are all benefiting from AI, but in very different parts of the stack, Nvidia on compute, TSM on manufacturing, and Broadcom on networking/custom silicon. If AI capex stays strong, you don't necessarily need to pick one winner because they're all getting paid at different points in the value chain. That's a pretty compelling setup.
I sold all my AMD (200 shares) for Reddit yesterday.
If you follow Broadcom you would know the headwinds (triggerfish, CXL, DSP, SerDes) they are currently facing.
That's fair. Broadcom definitely isn't risk-free. Competition in SerDes is heating up, hyperscalers are pushing more custom silicon and technologies. But that's also why I like the company, they're usually investing in those transitions rather than getting blindsided by them. The AI networking, custom ASIC and software businesses still give them a lot of ways to win even if one product area gets more competitive.
How any qcom
They already secured terafab for 14a, google for TPUs and apple for 18A-P idk what other “major” external customers you are referring to, but more will come since TSMC increased prices, I find AVGO limited by DRAM and chip constraints same with nvidia and AMD.
Intel
Lmao
what about AMD?
Broadcom or NBIS?
Interesting one. I'd probably still lean Broadcom. NBIS has a lot going for it with GPU cloud infrastructure and the Nebius AI platform, but it's still in the 'prove you can scale profitably' phase. Broadcom already has multiple AI revenue engines, networking, custom ASICs, VMware and enterprise infrastructure. Different risk/reward profiles, but Broadcom feels like the more proven business today.
If the sentiment turns bad against the AI infrastructure names then yeah. But I believe there would be deals everywhere in that case, not just marvell.
My question on AMD v Broadcom is which firm has more margin from the final product as they seem to be overlapping capabilities except enterprise software - AI networking, merchant silicon, custom ASICs.
To be clear, on the product delivered to a datacenter rack what is Broadcom's share, and what is AMD's share?
I think Nvidia/AMD are similar on their share. Does Broadcom's deliver systems or chips?
AMD and Nvidia are primarily selling the compute layer, the GPUs that do the AI work. Broadcom is different. It sells the networking silicon, custom ASICs, PCIe/CXL connectivity, optical interconnects and other infrastructure that ties those GPU clusters together. They overlap in custom AI silicon, but Broadcom isn't trying to replace AMD's GPUs. It's trying to supply the plumbing that increasingly massive AI clusters can't function without. That's why I see them as complementary more than direct competitors.