注意到20只基因组学/测序股票在同一周突破。不知道是真正的板块轮动还是我在匹配噪音模式
作者观察到基因组学股票在利率下降背景下广泛突破,但因成交量低迷而质疑其可持续性。
- 利率下降和通缩环境提振了具有远期终端价值的长久期、未盈利的基因组学股票。
- 广泛的突破缺乏成交量确认,大多数股票的相对成交量在1倍或更低,暗示可能是悄然上涨而非真正的轮动。
So I run a screen across 2800 nasdaq names, returns over a few horizons, distance from 52w highs, relative volume, dispersion, that kind of stuff. mostly to keep myself honest on the macro instead of trading off headlines. been doing it daily for a while now.
this week one thing stuck out and I've been chewing on it for a couple days so figured I'd just put it here and see if anyone's seeing the same thing or can tell me why I'm wrong.
there's a clump of genomics / DNA sequencing / diagnostics names that are all going to new highs at basically the same time. not one or two flyers, more like 20-25 of them. Twist (TWST) is up 100%+ over 3 months, Maravai 98%, NeoGenomics +77, Veracyte 79, then CareDx, Natera, Guardant, and even Illumina which has been dead money for literally years is up 40. the median name in that bucket is +33% over 3mo against roughly +4% for the whole nasdaq. so it's not just two rockets dragging the average up, the actual group is moving together.
why now, and this is just my read so push back: rates have been coming down and commodities are getting wrecked, gold/oil/silver all down double digits on the month. that's a disinflation tape. and the thing about most of these genomics companies is they make no money, the whole value is terminal-value way out in the future. so when the discount rate drops they're exactly the names that rip. long-duration equity basically. that part kind of makes sense to me.
here's what's actually bugging me though, and the real reason I'm posting. almost none of it has volume behind it. price is making new highs but relative volume is sitting around 1x, sometimes under. my screen literally tags most of them "needs volume." only a couple (Maravai, Natera) have real volume confirming the move. so I honestly can't tell if I'm early, in before the crowd, which is where you want to be, or if this is just a quiet drift higher that folds the second the tape turns.
I've got a small starter in TWST and I'm watching NEO, so that's my bias, take it for what it's worth.
couple things I'm genuinely trying to figure out:
does a breakout with no volume mean anything to you, or do you just wait for the volume even if it means giving up the first leg? I go back and forth on this constantly.
and if anyone actually follows this space, is there a fundamental catalyst here I'm missing (some approval cycle, funding thing, M&A chatter?) or is it really just the rate move pulling the whole group up at once?
not advice, I'm a macro guy poking at a sector I don't know that well, which is half the reason I'm asking.
What platform do you use to run such a screen?
Love it
Biotech has been taking a beating for over 3 years. It has to bounce back at some point. The rest of the market has been on a roll.
XBI is up 87% in the last year?
And only 13% in the last five years
Classic sector / industry rotation. Regarding your concern about volume: just remember that volume doesn’t pay you, only price does.
Volume is a confirmation signal. Obvs if I get a good price, I will take it 😂
It can sometimes be a signal but I’ve also seen many trends last for months without huge volume spikes.
Check for a nice ETF that ties them all together. If a niche ETF came out and funds dropped into it then its synthetic demand via the ETF. A lot of that is going on lately.
GH and NTRA have had several approvals/reimbursement wins this year. Not all that close to NEO or VCYT but it seems like their core businesses are humming.
TWST and ILMN are derivative plays on the industry so makes sense they'd be up too, though ILMN is more of a complicated product cycle/China story. MRVI is borderline special sits.
You're 100% right on the rates argument. But also if you're an institution its much easier to be long Dx vs core tools (typically grouped together) given valuations there and the constant head fake rebounds. Also assume people are starting to shift some money within HC out of biopharma after the YTD run, and Dx gives you some similar factor exposure.
Haven't seen much spec dx discussion on reddit since covid, good shit
do you literally only post AI written garbage? only when you are writing in english it seems
Feels like a sector rotation mixed with a short-covering bounce. The next pullback should show whether there’s real leadership underneath it.
Agree. A pull back will certainly show us what is really strong in the sector. And there is a lot of short covering after awful years for biotech.
IBD top 50 signaling the same thing. Lots of healthcare/biotech in the list. Sector rotation for sure. Not sure there's a good reason for it, other than it being an underperforming sector for last 5 years
Is the fee that high?

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