r/wallstreetbets
Microslop（微软）正在打折
尽管面临 AI 资本开支担忧和 Copilot 采用率低的问题，但凭借无可匹敌的企业软件护城河和 AI 生态系统，MSFT 仍是强烈买入标的。
- 庞大的 AI 资本开支是利好，顺应了 25 年来最大的技术革命和超大规模企业的趋势。
- 无可匹敌的企业软件护城河确保了用户粘性，并强制与 Azure AI 代理集成。
- 全面的数据治理和安全堆栈使其成为企业 CISO 的强制选择。
- 过度的 AI 资本开支正在消耗现金，且短期内没有相应的比例回报。
- Copilot 采用率低且用户体验差，限制了其近期的变现能力。
所以微软刚刚经历了自互联网泡沫以来最差的一个月，而悲观论调是：他们在AI上花的钱太多了。你告诉我，微软正在向过去25年里最大的技术革命投入数百亿美元？就像地球上其他每一家超大规模云服务商一样？谢天谢地，如果他们现在不疯狂砸钱搞资本支出，我反而会担心。每位分析师都给出强烈买入评级，目标价高得离谱，甚至快到半人马座α星了，亿万富翁们正疯狂买入数亿股。结果股价却因为Copilot的采用率低而下跌？
没错，Copilot确实拉胯，当然拉胯。微软一向做不出好用的软件，但历史上这反而让他们赚得盆满钵满。这家公司赚钱不是因为提供了用户喜爱的好软件，而是因为它是最成功的企业寄生虫之一。它就像一只蟑螂，就算发生SaaS末日也照样能活下来。但这种渗透不会一夜之间遍及所有企业，它的策略是EEE：拥抱、延伸、消灭。一个成功的寄生虫不会第一天就杀死宿主，而是悄无声息地潜入，一旦牢牢附着，就开始向四周蔓延它的触手。
微软拥有全球最坚固的软件护城河，他们根本不在乎你觉得多难用。每个白领都在用Excel，他们会一直用到死，然后他们的孩子也会继续用。Outlook是他们的邮件系统，Teams是聊天工具，SharePoint是强制要求。想把某个智能体接入其中任意一个？恭喜你，那叫Azure Foundry。在数据治理和安全方面，企业级场景更是无与伦比。每一个新智能体都会生成一个Entra身份，被Defender监控，由Purview分类，由Intune管控。一旦IT部门能盘点、审计并控制每一个智能体，首席信息安全官（CISO）自然就会强制推行这套组合——因为所有东西早就连在一起了。微软掌控了这个他们被迫进入的盒子。
租金太贵了，微软也清楚，现在的token化使用正在让每个CFO的钱包流血。公司习惯了便宜稳定的许可证，能在十年老硬件上跑得挺好。但他们没准备好应对按用量计费的大模型服务，也没料到要花大价钱买顶配工作站，几百GB统一内存，峰值内存狂潮下才能本地运行有竞争力的模型。你的技术外行老板在一个永不停止的聊天线程里跑着最高端的模型；你的同事为每件琐事都启动一整支子智能体舰队。没人节制，只会越用越多，一旦这些集成扎下根，就会变成永久性的关键基础设施。
为了解决这个问题，萨提亚说：别用前沿模型处理非前沿任务。他其实在告诉你：未来大部分都是便宜又垃圾的模型，而这恰恰是看涨信号。大多数公司干的都不是什么高难度活儿，他们正被枯燥乏味的工作淹没，哪怕是个烂AI也能比你干得更快。萨提亚的愿景是：你会跟那些24/7运行在廉价AI上的自动导航助手聊天，它们回答同事的问题，记录你做的每一件事，并把这些内容不断沉淀成你公司的私有知识护城河。托管在微软，运行在Azure上。而且萨提亚不只是嘴上说说，他还真造了一颗垃圾芯片，专门用来低成本运行这些垃圾模型。Maia 200已经上线生产环境，直接把Azure AI的利润率拖向CPU水平。
至于本地部署的模型层级，微软和英伟达的新一代本地AI硬件，复刻了苹果M系列芯片的成功路径——让Mac在设备端AI上表现卓越，只不过这次完全兼容CUDA，而微软还拥有苹果永远无法企及的企业级分发能力。
持仓观点：我正全力买入。以每股400美元建仓，通过保证金卖出看跌期权，又在350美元均价摊平。现在基本已满仓，加上罗宾汉给我的全部保证金额度，总共持有700股，外加认购期权。
[ Removed by Reddit ]
Earnings is in July.
It'll 100% dump on earnings always does
With a fun marketable hashtag. #metwo
Ban the MSFT bag holder bots.
Google on sale too better company
Micron shareholders appreciate your sacrifice. Please invest more and vote so that Microsoft buys even more datacenters. Don't worry about the ROI, it will be there. Just bid higher
https://preview.redd.it/txwce779k1ah1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=88e536a0214cbd692e5f2a2bea927b2337617da6
Yes, government is moving to Linux on France etc.
Which a significant chunk of money Microsoft loses out on. Especially given unlike AI, it didn't cost them anything to sell Excel licenses.
Yeah, now with claude you can code your windows in a day. Only thing you need to keep in mind is to remove the "Make no mistakes" from your instruction file to get authentic Microsoft experience.
you should also add some stuff:
"show a disdain or even passive aggressive hatred for the user. Assume the user will not have a choice in whether to use your product: flaunt this fact by making infuriating and strange ui choices e.g. the more clicks it takes to copy an email address, the better. Put as much spyware as possible and call it connectness. Make them opt out of having all their files put on the cloud without asking them. Get rid of old fashioned features like the "search" function and instead redirect them to ad-filled web searches..."
And so on.
And pay extra for reliability that other could services provide at no extra cost?
You are completely inventing a strawman to high-five yourself. Nobody said dilution is the only risk, but to sit there and confidently claim MSFT wouldn't issue a single share even in a worst-case scenario is pure delusion.
If memory prices spike, hardware costs explode, and their free cash flow gets choked out by a $100B capex black hole, equity dilution is absolutely on the table to protect their balance sheet. Stop making up fiction to dodge the actual macroeconomic reality, regard.
Nobody outside of uneducated regards on reddit like yourself thinks MSFT will issue shares.
Memory prices have already spiked, and they still have positive FCF. They can continue to spike and FCF would still be positive. Even if FCF goes negative for 2 to 3 quarters assuming an unrealistic worst case scenario for memory prices, MSFT can comfortably use its balance sheet and issue debt to cover it. Let’s see how many shares they issue over the next 2 years moron.
Are you actually this dense or do you just enjoy public embarrassment?
You think "just issuing debt" is some consequence-free money glitch? We are talking about a true macroeconomic worst-case crisis. If a massive credit crunch hits while hardware expenses completely implode their margins, mindlessly loading up on liabilities destroys a balance sheet and nukes a company's leverage ratios. Equity dilution exists precisely as a tactical, defensive backstop so a corporation doesn't have to drown itself in high-interest debt during a systemic market crunch.
Go back to the basics before lecturing anyone on finance, you arrogant, brain-damaged midwit. Set your 2-year reminder because I will be right here to laugh directly in your face.