r/stockmarket
如果今天必须在英伟达之外选一家AI半导体，我可能会倾向于博通而不是AMD。
作者看好博通在AI基础设施和定制ASIC业务上的多元化优势，认为其长期投资价值胜过执行力同样出色的AMD。
- 无论哪种AI芯片获胜，博通都能从所有AI基础设施建设中受益。
- 由于基数较小且不断抢占服务器/GPU市场份额，AMD具有巨大的上行空间。
- 超大规模云厂商大力投资定制AI芯片，直接利好博通的ASIC业务。
- 博通面临极高的市场预期，导致每次财报都面临极高的业绩门槛。
- AMD主要专注于竞争激烈的商用芯片市场。
这并不是因为我认为AMD是一家较弱的公司。恰恰相反，AMD在过去几年里表现极为出色。EPYC已经真正夺得了服务器市场的份额，Instinct GPU终于在超大规模数据中心中获得了势头，而Lisa Su也打造了科技行业中最为精彩的逆袭故事之一。
但博通（Broadcom）给人的感觉是正在玩一个完全不同的游戏。AMD仍然主要在竞争卖出更多芯片，而博通则直接参与构建AI基础设施本身。它位于网络、交换、定制AI ASIC、高速连接技术的背后，如今又通过VMware多了一层软件布局。随着AI集群不断搭建，博通的身影似乎无处不在。
像谷歌、Meta，甚至现在连OpenAI都在大力投资自研AI芯片。博通并不与这些项目竞争，反而在帮助构建其中许多。最近OpenAI宣布定制推理芯片的消息，再次提醒了这一点。
这并不意味着AMD无法继续获胜。如果MI350以及未来的Instinct系列持续进步，依然有巨大的AI加速器市场可供拓展。由于AMD是从一个更小的基数出发，因此若能持续抢占份额，其增长潜力可能更大。
我只是觉得博通有更多的赢面。AI网络、通用硅芯片、定制ASIC、VMware、企业基础设施——这家公司看起来并不押注于单一产品周期。它几乎正变成AI基础设施背后的‘幕后推手’。
讽刺的是，博通最大的风险或许正是过高的预期。市场早已认定它是AI赢家，因此每一份财报都会被放在极高的标准下审视。相比之下，AMD更像是仍需证明自己，而博通则必须一遍又一遍地证明自己依然优秀。
如果我只能在未来十年持有其中一家，我可能会选择博通。不是因为我认为它会打造出最好的AI芯片，而是因为它显然决心无论谁的AI芯片最终胜出，它都能从中赚钱。
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Broadcom seems more of an institutional play vs Nvidia or AMD with latter two almost meme like
I kind of get what you mean. Broadcom feels more like a boring long term play business, whereas Nvidia and especially AMD attract a lot more retail attention because they're the obvious AI chip names. Broadcom's AI story is also less visible, it sits behind networking, custom ASICs and infrastructure rather than the headline GPUs, which probably makes it feel more institutional.
TLDR: I bought broadcom and you should as well.
WOLF?
And this is why retail investors lose money
ASML. Im adding into it if i see a red day, minimum 100-300$ i will add. Within 6-7 months I got like close to 5 shares and almost 30% up.
AMD is way went up and others like mrvl qualcomm intel. I would pick broadcom if i hat to chose amd cs avgo vs mrvl
ASML is a tough one to argue against over the long run. It's one of the few true bottlenecks in the entire semiconductor industry. On Broadcom vs AMD, I mostly agree with your reasoning. AMD probably has the higher upside if it keeps taking AI share but Broadcom feels like the more diversified AI infrastructure play and after the recent pullback the expectations are a bit more grounded.
MRVL is a solid shout too. It has real exposure to AI networking, custom silicon and cloud infrastructure. I still lean Broadcom because it's more diversified and throws off a lot more cash, but if AI infrastructure spending stays strong, I think Marvell has plenty of room to execute as well.
Broadcom also has an advantage that many investors underestimate: diversification within AI. If GPU demand ever becomes more competitive or commoditized, networking, custom ASICs, and infrastructure software give Broadcom multiple engines of growth instead of relying on a single product category.
That's a big part of why I lean Broadcom too. It's not really making a single AI bet, it has exposure to networking, custom ASICs, optical connectivity, VMware and enterprise infrastructure. Even if one area slows, there are multiple ways for AI spending to keep flowing through the business. That's a pretty nice position to be in.
I did not expect this headwind from Broadcom. There is no clear reason why NVIDIA and Broadcom are experiencing such a downturn in the stock market, even after the positive earnings reports. I want to know why! My only guess is that the two CEOs are not white. lol
I think it's more about expectations than the businesses themselves. When you're trading at premium multiples, great earnings often aren't enough, you have to perform as per what the market had already priced in. Add concerns about AI capex, export restrictions, and some profit-taking after huge runs, and you can get weak price action even with excellent fundamentals. That's happened to a lot of AI names recently, not just Broadcom and Nvidia.
Lol, it’s pretty absurd when the price action no longer reflects the underlying business but instead the market’s expectations.
I’ve also been seeing more headlines suggesting that this could be the beginning of an AI bubble. Between the recent volatility across semiconductor stocks, the PCE data, and growing scepticism about AI spending, it honestly feels like we’re walking on eggshells.
At times, the market feels less like trading and more like gambling.
Dude... No.
I already sold most of mine