r/stockmarket
Micron财报后，7月完全是雷区。Micron给出31美元EPS指引，加上即将到来的10份财报 = 交易员完蛋了
作者对7月财报季前的半导体板块持看空态度，担忧不切实际的AI资本开支预期将引发市场回调。
- 预期过高：AI财报的基准现在太高，任何微小的不及预期都会引发情绪剧变。
- 财报雷区：7月有10家科技/半导体巨头财报，全部跨越极高门槛的概率极低。
- AI资本开支风险：主要厂商任何AI资本开支放缓的迹象都可能迅速改变市场情绪。
作为一名交易员，在美光财报发布前，我的出场策略是：
- 每股收益指引 ≤ 25美元： 立刻离场
- 25至27美元之间： 仍需减仓或离场
- 超过27美元： 继续持有，并在下一次财报后重新评估
结果，美光给出的指引却是31美元每股收益。这反而让我更加看空。
如果31美元每股收益现在成了该死的基准线，那整个市场接下来又会期待什么？
没错，而今七月已至……ASML、台积电、德州仪器、泛林集团、英特尔、微软、谷歌等公司纷纷公布财报。美光的财报已经让全球市场喘不过气，但接下来一个月里，我们还几乎要面对十次类似的冲击。
这简直是一片雷区。市场只需要其中一家公司发出疲软指引、AI资本开支放缓，或仅仅是未能超越极端预期，情绪就可能迅速逆转。
我并不看空人工智能本身。我只是看空未来一个月内所有主要AI公司财报都持续突破越来越不切实际的高门槛的概率。
正因如此，我预计七月份将出现一次显著回调。
好奇其他交易员如何布局。我计划在未来几个月内逐步大幅降低我的半导体持仓。
lol my first thought
MU in 2022/24 cycle did not have the contracts they are negotiating with the buyers.
There was recent TV comment where someone from MU had said that Apple refused to pay for any price increases then, and MU shelved their capacity build plans.
Yes - you are correct, it is cyclical and MU is going to load up their money trucks for the next 0-3 year. Question is do you care if it is only 0-3, and when will market start to discount.
Not selling anytime soon
My cost is $60 a share and I'm selling as the price goes up as a risk management exercise.
I hold stocks for 10-15+ years (yes really), bought MU around 30 and it was grounded for almost 8 years and now it is riding and have no reason to sell.
Look, I have a handful of stocks that I am happy to let it run for another 15-20 years, and maybe put it on a estate wrapper. This is one of them,
Nature of supplier agreements has changed - approx 50% of prices / supply are contracted to the buyers per the biz news channels
Need to look up one of the buy-side reports on MU
Supply and demand remain incredibly strong, and they've already locked in contracts through 2027. Micron just reported earnings that were around 15× estimates, and several banks have raised their price targets to the $1,500–$2,000 range. To me, that all points to this still being a great investment opportunity. I'm not buying into the online negativity or the constant attempts to drive sentiment lower and shake people out of their positions. They can do what they want—I’m sticking to the fundamentals.
Dvlt has till late august to be compliant with nasdaq. Either reverse split or delist but that’s in August. The entire month of July is an opportunity for us to print $$$
Dvlt is at a low of .33. When everyone invests it’s an .86 stock. Lots of room to print $$$ plus an easy way to double your investment.
Haha I was gonna post the YouTube link because the post was literally word by word
I think July could definitely be more volatile than usual, especially with multiple major earnings coming up.
Personally, I try to avoid making aggressive bets right before earnings unless I have a clear risk plan. A good earnings report doesn't always mean the stock goes up, and a bad report doesn't always mean it crashes.
For me, managing position size has become more important than trying to predict the reaction.
Just look at Avgo, the forward guidance was not fantastic so the stock sold off. It will have a dip but not a major crash. Nothing to worry about . Big tech has already sold off before the earnings, the expectation has been lowered
Semiconductors are to the nowadays economy what was oil in the 60-80.
USA has 4000-5000 datacenters, and is planning to double.
The rest of the world is trying to catch up and it is 10 years behind. And quantum computing, edge device implementation and humanoids are just starting.
To fill the gap, the semiconductors will be sold out beyond the 2-3years.
It is not anymore a cyclical industry.
If micron delivers bad EPS then you would say it’s bad. So micron delivered fantastic EPS, you also call it bad. What can satisfy you
I was reading this post and was like this sounds so familiar, where the fuck did I here it from lmao.
People outside Silicon Valley don't realize how much DRAM we actually need. This is only the beginning.
didn't get it, why a low PE indicates the commodity is richly valued relative to historical prices?