r/valueinvesting
微软以历史低市盈率交易并非“白捡钱”信号，多头似乎忽略了重要背景
作者认为巨额AI资本开支压低了自由现金流利润率，使微软低市盈率合理化，挑战了多头的全栈AI逻辑。
- 代理计算是必然趋势，微软处于最佳位置以在企业各个层级捕获价值。
- 微软拥有完整的全栈能力（基础设施、数据、应用、治理），没有竞争对手能匹敌。
- 强劲的AI变现能力体现在370亿美元AI ARR（同比增长123%）和2500万Copilot付费席位（同比增长250%）。
- 由于单季度高达319亿美元的巨额资本开支，自由现金流利润率从历史的30-35%降至19%。
- 市场的怀疑态度反映在股价跌至370美元，并以接近历史低点的21倍市盈率交易。
- 在自由现金流从巨额AI投资中实现有意义且持续的恢复之前，估值倍数将保持受压。
管理层的核心论点（看涨者们普遍相信的）是，向代理式计算的转型不可避免，而微软或许是在这一转变过程中最具备在每一层捕获价值能力的公司。
其论证逻辑如下：
- 代理正在成为企业级工作的主导负载
- 每家公司最终都需要基础设施来运行它们（以及用于支撑它们的数据、部署它们的应用程序，还有控制它们的治理机制）
- 微软拥有这四个层面：Azure 提供基础设施，Fabric 和 Foundry 负责数据与模型编排，M365 和 GitHub 提供应用程序，Agent 365 则负责治理
- 没有任何竞争对手具备完整的全栈能力
当然，这个说法在纸面上非常诱人。管理层不断强调 $370 亿的 AI 年度经常性收入（ARR）实现了同比 123% 的增长，以及 Microsoft Copilot 付费用户数同比飙升 250% 至 2500 万。
这些数据确实亮眼。如果你相信管理层的说法，那么微软将不可避免地成为代理型企业的操作系统，就像它在 dot com 时代所扮演的角色一样。
但问题是，市场并没有照单全收，这一点值得深究。股价已跌至 $370（几乎与 2021 年 11 月的水平相当），其市盈率 21 倍也接近公司历史低位。
如果管理层的论点如此坚不可摧，为何股价会出现如此显著的折价？
这是我个人的看法。
第一（也是最主要的一点）是自由现金流（FCF）的问题，我认为这是最令人担忧的。本季度，微软在 $829 亿营收的基础上产生了 $158 亿的自由现金流，自由现金流利润率仅为 19%。而历史上，微软的这一数字通常在 30%-35% 之间。当前利润率被压低，是因为本季度仅资本支出（CapEx）就高达 $319 亿，市场被要求相信这笔巨额季度开支终将带来回报。在自由现金流没有实现显著且持续的恢复之前，我坚信估值倍数将持续承压，因为不能永远只靠 ARR 增长来给公司定价。投资者想要看到的是真金白银的现金流入。
更令人不安的是，像谷歌和亚马逊这样的超大规模云服务商并未停滞不前。两者都在以相近的资本支出水平进行投入，都拥有可信的 AI 基础设施叙事，而谷歌尤其在模型质量方面凭借 Gemini 有很强的说服力。微软的叙事暗示企业级 AI 工作负载将集中到单一超大规模云服务商身上。但实际上，企业采用多云 AI 策略的可能性非常高，届时微软可能只能拿下三分之一的机会，而非一半。这将带来截然不同的估值结果。
第二，我认为管理层在披露部分关键指标时显得异常模糊。他们反复提及 2000 万 Copilot 用户席位，但我希望看到更细致的数据，比如每席位的收入贡献，以及是否已有消费型收入在此基础上显现。一些人担心，用户数量的增长是真实的，但变现深度远不如他们所暗示的那么深。我的意思是，企业购买了 Copilot，但使用并不够深入，无法驱动足以支撑高增长估值的消费收入。管理层不愿披露这些信息，令人怀疑，因为这正是他们整个叙事的核心所在。
第三是毛利率下滑。我认为市场正将其视为结构性恶化，必须引起重视。
第四，微软与 OpenAI 在合同、结构和竞争关系上存在一种极为复杂的纠葛。这很危险，因为它给微软的 AI ARR 故事带来了重大依赖风险。我想象得到，有很多事情可能导致 OpenAI 改变方向——可能是竞争受挫、商业协议重组，或是模型质量相对于 Anthropic 或谷歌出现退步。
最后，我们必须记住，企业软件的采购周期很长。如果经济转弱，大额 Copilot 承诺这类支出正是最容易被推迟的“可选支出”。因此，市场也可能在定价中计入了这样一个可能性：第三季度的用户增长只是提前兑现，而非可持续的常态。
我并不是说我现在会做空微软，甚至也不一定看多。我的观点是，市场可能并非毫无道理，那些认为这只是“市场愚蠢”的人，可能没有充分考虑到这只股票背后的全部因素。
总之，这只股票仍在我的关注列表中。目前我既不持仓也不做空。我正在观察大约二十个左右的关键里程碑进展，之后再判断管理层的论点是否真的正在逐步兑现。
I also heard an interesting point that RSUs create new shares and thus dilute the pool. Without buybacks the per share price may drop further.
Exactly. No one has provided a strong enough argument to support WHY the capex is bad. Zuck has explained this quite well already: the risk of not spending enough is much greater than spending too much. Even more so in MSFT’s position than META’s. Not spending enough is submitting to certain loss in the part of this AI race that’s is their core business.
And also, they can afford to spend the amount they are right now.
Right, because there is no need to “enhance” their products with AI.
It’s like adding premium Fiji water to every meal. Unnecessary.
Can you explain what you mean by “enterprise AI platform?” You don’t really need AI in Entra ID (Active Directory) nor GitHub, nor SQL.
Entra is part of Open Identity Connect framework, it’s just a layer of authentication (“how do I know who you are?”) which sits on top of authorization (“do actually have permission to access this resource?”) It achieves both layers by sending tokens back and forth between client and server to verify authN and authZ. Not sure how throwing AI into that mix can help.
GitHub doesn’t really need AI. It’s just a means of storing code remotely. Throwing AI onto it is not better than just asking Copilot.
SQL is a data sublanguage. I guess you can throw AI into that to get it to analyze queries based on the data in the database but you still can use copilot.
Microsoft Defender could probably use some inference to determine if things are threats
Microsoft 365 could help you scaffold some projects in Word, PowerPoint, or Excel.
However, Microsoft is overpaying for these extra capabilities and shareholders may suffer from this excessive spending. I don’t think Claude will replace any of Microsoft’s core products though. The best models are banned by the government(s) too so it’s harder to vibe code your own Microsoft clone product.
Anyhow, no need to downvote me. I’m not a bear but I’m someone who just wants to learn more. Currently buying META over MSFT but interested.
You think a 30% drop reflects pricing in some risk...in your opinion? Well...duh?
Exactly. This obvious point is missed by OP. The biggest concern - CAPEX is entirely in their own control. They are spending because they can, and they are in the business of monetizing that over years. Risk to not spend enough is much greater than risk of spending too much, in MSFT’s position. Zuck has articulate that point well already.
Wtf are you talking about? What is the hole? They've been growing solid double digits forever.
What is the hole?
No Moats where they are the clear leader and a future is undeniably in their sights.
A ship can travel very quickly with a small hole but eventually it will sink.
I don't see MSFT anywhere near contention amongst its peers in the next decade and the stock price reflects that, as does investor sentiment.
Stocks look to the future, not the past.
Not in contention with their peers? Who are their peers? AWS and Google? Ms is far more entrenched in the enterprise than either of those. Will they be the outright winner? Who knows. But I dont see how you can say you dont see them anywhere near contention. And nobody can predict the future. But the past is probably the best indicator of the future. Right now its all guesses, and things change fast. Wasn't that long ago when Google was in the dumps because they wouldn't be able to compete with msft/oai.
Well, its not free for all competition, its an oligopoly, so my expectation is they'll all raise prices together, and significantly so.
Ive heard a lot of good things about gitpilot...
Starting June 1st their token model changed a lot and it became much more expensive then the alternatives. Like 30x more. I have to remind myself that this is an investing sub though. Just speaking from personal experience.
Same
Here we go the full port signal #inversevalueinvesting
You’re welcome!
I work in Tech so maybe I overestimate how much the normal person stays up to date with this kinda news.