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r/valueinvesting· u/Tim_Apple_938· 1 天前Discussion 0

如果 Gemini 在编程领域未能领先，Alphabet 的业务故事是否会受到负面影响？（他们目前在该领域实际上相当落后）

投资者摘要中性

尽管 AI 资本开支巨大，作者仍质疑如果 Gemini 在智能体编程方面落后于 OpenAI/Anthropic，Alphabet 的业务是否会面临风险。

看多要点

Google 正在押注搜索 AI 模式和 TPU 云业务等其他长期战略。
Gemini 在多模态等众多领域处于最先进水平，证明其具备构建前沿模型的能力。
智能体编程可能会演变成价格战，从而降低错失该市场的负面影响。

看空要点

Gemini 在关键的智能体编程领域显著落后于 Anthropic 和 OpenAI 等竞争对手。
Google 似乎并不重视编程模型，与其 2000 亿美元的巨额资本开支相比，分配的资金微乎其微。
如果智能体编程成为一个高溢价业务，完全错失可能会对其核心业务故事产生负面影响。

GOOGAI 资本开支半导体

帖子正文

高质量模型翻译结果

如果 Gemini 在编程领域无法领先，会对 Alphabet 的业务造成什么影响？目前它在这方面明显落后。

Anthropic 已经多年坚持以代码为先。

OpenAI 刚刚暂停了所有其他项目（如 Sora 等），全力投入编码模型的研发。

而谷歌……似乎根本没把这个方向当回事？今年他们看起来把算力资源都用在了别的地方，比如大规模搜索的 AIMode、通过云服务强化 TPU 业务等。

在 Gemini 3 Pro 证明了 GOOG 有能力达到前沿水平之后，他们就再没有太多动作，反而转向了其他长期押注。

（当然他们收购了 Windsurf，但 20 亿美元相比其每年 2000 亿美元的实体基础设施资本支出，不过是九牛一毛。）

Gemini 在多模态等多个领域仍处于行业顶尖水平，但在智能体式编程方面却远远落后。

问题：

这重要吗？
智能体式编程会不会成为一个高溢价的领域，价值由增量智能提升所主导？如果是这样，谷歌就会错失良机？

还是说这会变成一场价格战，像 GLM5.2 等产品一样？

如果这是一个巨大的市场，而谷歌完全错过了，他们的核心业务中有没有哪个会受到冲击？

讨论 · 高赞评论14 条精选

u/Mouth_Herpes 1· 1 天前

Not if they keep search

u/Ancient-Purpose99 1· 1 天前

Their businesses won’t be affected. Ultimately they will be basically like a combination of the existing ads business and aws, which makes its valuation look reasonable. The issue is the people who incorrectly think that Gemini makes gcp far beyond aws, Gemini is like almost always a horrible product I actively avoid .

Its current valuation is reasonable , but it’s not a. Value investment at this price

u/Tim_Apple_938 1· 1 天前

Ah. Wait no GCPs edge is NOT Gemini

However they do have a clear edge with TPU that’s a true nvidia competitor (unlike Trainium etc)

u/Ancient-Purpose99 1· 1 天前

Remember that tpu requires avgo to do some of the design work (unlike tranium where aws does everything above fabrication)

u/Tim_Apple_938 1· 1 天前

Maybe that explains why TPU is a better chip than Trainium tho

u/Educational_Cable405 1· 18 小时前

Topping the coding leaderboard is like being the fastest runner on a team that also owns the stadium, the TV deal and the parking lot. Fun to brag about, but Alphabet still collects on Search distribution, YouTube and Cloud no matter who's number one on the model charts that month. Gemini just has to be good enough that nobody bothers to switch away.

u/Bheegabhoot 1· 1 天前

Google owns 14% of Anthropic. They get the upside without the catastrophic downsides.

u/FalseDiamond7930 1· 1 天前

Google set up a strike team lead by Sergey Brin exactly to tackle this, so they are taking it seriously. To me it just doesn't seem like Demis Hassabis doesn't see specializing in code as the best path for their models.

In the past Google was able to eventually respond and do really well when people counted them out.

u/strahag 1· 1 天前

I have heard that google’s internal codebase is essentially a proprietary coding language, and that this has made using ai coding agents difficult to implement internally, since there is less data to train on and external models aren’t trained on it at all. I wonder if this also adds difficulty in creating + testing a good agentic coding model.

u/Lovevas 1· 1 天前

Doesn't matter that much. Google just need to prove:

Search is not disrupted by AI (proved already), and ads revenue isn't impacted.
Google can make money through GCP, by selling their compute power (data center). It's proving, as seen by their unfilled orders, they huge YoY growth, and it's rental agreement with xAI to get more data center (to sell to Anthropic, OpenAI and cloud customers)

So Gemini itself doesn't matter that much.

u/GainDelicious1894 1· 1 天前

Fewer people are clicking on search results and there are much fewer impressions now that people are using Ai or even Gemini more.

Their ads revenues from clicks and impressions is going to crash.

u/Lovevas 1· 1 天前

Nope, Google ads revenue has been growing pretty well in the past 4 years. Do som research

u/ayyitsLibra 1· 1 天前

Stopped reading at business story

u/Eye-Fast 1· 1 天前

No, read up on their business more.

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