r/valueinvesting
我越关注 Palantir，就越觉得它不仅仅是一家 AI 软件公司。
作者认为 PLTR 正从国防承包商演变为企业 AI 操作系统，尽管面临高估值和政府依赖风险。
- 正从国防承包商演变为数据驱动型组织决策的全面操作系统。
- 商业业务通过 AIP 加速，专注于实际 AI 部署而非单纯销售基础模型。
- 在 AI 生态中定位独特，作为基础模型与企业数据/工作流之间的集成层。
- 预期极高，估值已反映了对未来数年完美执行的定价。
- 严重依赖政府合同，使公司面临政治和伦理审查风险。
几年前，我可能会把 Palantir 描述为一家拥有出色软件的国防承包商。但现在我不太确定了。它似乎正在演变为一个组织级的操作系统，帮助这些组织从海量数据中做出决策。
政府业务仍然是故事的重要部分，而且短期内可能不会改变。国防、情报、后勤、战场软件……这些业务仍在持续增长。但最近让我关注的是，其商业板块在 AIP 的推动下加速发展得多么迅猛。美国商业增长极为惊人，客户数量不断攀升，管理层谈论的内容也逐渐从销售 AI 模型转向如何帮助企业真正将 AI 部署到实际运营中。这似乎是一个重要的区别。
我还觉得，Palantir 在 AI 生态系统中占据了一个独特的位置。OpenAI、Anthropic 和 Google 等公司致力于构建基础模型，而 Palantir 并不真正想与它们竞争。相反，它试图成为一层中间层，帮助政府和企业将这些模型与自身的数据、工作流程和决策机制整合起来。如果企业 AI 的未来真如这般，那它所处的位置就相当有趣了。
显而易见的风险是，市场预期现在高得离谱。公司交出的表现确实出色，但股价已经反映出投资者期待其多年保持近乎完美的执行。此外，仍有一部分业务依赖政府合同，且由于服务的客户类型，公司持续面临政治和伦理方面的 scrutiny（审视）。
也许正因如此，我才觉得 PLTR 这家公司如此引人入胜。我更关心的不是它今天是否‘贵’，而是它最终能否成长为不可或缺的企业级 AI 平台，还是仅仅停留在一家卓越的国防软件公司层面。
好奇大家怎么看这家公司的前景。
Sure but have you seen the price of Palantir? There are many companies that can help organizations operate with their data, including snowflake, databricks, and increasingly Claude.
This post basically echos what I think of palantir. Recently have become very bullish after not really grasping the thesis for a long time. Because of the valuation I’m sure this sub will be anti.
I think that's exactly why Palantir is such an interesting stock. The business and the valuation have almost become two separate discussions. Even people who are bullish on the company often admit the multiple is demanding. The commercial execution has started to catch up with the narrative, which is why I think more people are finally understanding the thesis instead of viewing it as just another defense contractor.
love me some AI slop in the morning
yumyum
Oil companies aren't like tech companies.
They don't depend on equity prices on the secondary market for financing or employee compensation, because they generate heaps of operating cash flow. If they need financing they'll mostly use revolving credit facilities or issue bonds. Little of their workforce gets SBC. This is why share buyer boycotts hardly effect their operations.
Essentially, if one's investing in the secondary equity market for oil companies, and not participating in banking for them, with every dividend payment or share buyback, one's extracting money from that's sectors' financial ecosystem. One can spend the proceeds on solar, BEVs, heat-pumps or donations to Greenpeace. Want to hurt the oil companies? Figure out how to get the world to stop buying their product.
Palantir, like many tech companies, would be a money losing operation without the stock market subsidizing their operations via SBC. They claim 0.84% earnings yield, but they diluted existing shareholders by -3.24% over the last year. Shareholders are getting diluted faster than retained earnings are increasing.
And yet you're still profiting off an oil company that extracts oil and sells it. What about Palantir supplying software to Ukraine to defend themselves from Russia? The point I'm trying to make is that if you're going to let politics get in the way of your investing, then it's a slippery slope, unless you come up with some mental gymnastics like you have done.
r/ValueInvesting
looks inside
Palantir
That's actually one of the things I find most interesting about Palantir. The AI models themselves are becoming more commoditized, but building an ontology that maps how an organization actually operates is a much harder problem. Once that layer is embedded into day-to-day operations, switching costs can get pretty high. I agree Databricks is probably one of the closer commercial competitors, but Palantir's years of work with defense and complex government organizations seem to give it a pretty unique head start in those environments.
Lots of smart asses working there. Unfortunately a lot of assholes too. Won't buy, even if their engineering is top. Oh, and the valuation is an issue too. But other companies should notice and get inspired.
Palantir's moat is basically all the regulation compliance across all regulated industries. Many financial banks, healthcare, utilities, military, and government divisions use Palantir software.
AIP is basically the gatekeeper shim layer that sits between the organization's data (system of record) and the LLM. It controls which data the LLM can see, so it does not leak secrets. This is important for regulated industries.
For commercial, the typical company that adopts Palantir are logistics companies and large supply chain. Think of stuff like agriculture, ranching, construction, semiconductors, etc. Samsung Electronics uses Palantir for example. The ontology or digital twin of tracking a logistics chain is the value they provide.
Palantir deploys FDE (forward deployed engineers) so that even non-tech companies with small IT depart ents can get started with their software. Typically you would think that would be a low margin consultantcy like Accenture, however the margins are high like a software company (gross margins of 80 percent).
In terms of balance sheet, they are asset light and have zero debt. The knock against Palantir has always been stock based compensation, but that has come down a lot over the last few years.
The negative of Palantir is the political overhang. Anti-American sentiment hits Palantir hard from activist groups and NGOs because Palantir is unapologetically pro-American. If you browse Reddit, Y! Combinator Hacker News or left wing social media, you will see lots of negative rhetoric against Palantir. The current CEO and President of Y! Combinator, Garry Tan was one of the first employees of Palantir. Tan gets lots of hate on Hacker News and Twitter from activist posters.
Peter Thiel was one of the founders. Thiel is a decisive figure on social media. However even left-wing mega billionaires like George Soros was one of the early investors in Palantir.
Valuations are premium, but early retail investors from 2020-2021 invested in Palantir because of the high quality business model.
I think that's a pretty fair summary. The thing I'd add is that Palantir's moat isn't just the AI models, those are becoming increasingly interchangeable. It's the combination of the ontology, governance, security, compliance and deep integration into mission-critical workflows. Once a large organization builds operations around that, switching becomes a much bigger decision than just replacing an LLM. The premium valuation is really the market betting that those switching costs and commercial adoption keep compounding. The execution has been impressive so far, but the expectations are undeniably high too.
NO, only forced automatic purchase of pension fund shares by my employer as they offer no alternative, but I sell and cleanse that crap every few months and get the funds transferred over to my SIPP to buy proper stock picks.
You are on a roll
Stupid response
Technically it's a question, albeit a rhetorical one