r/investing
Z.ai 的开源 GLM5.2 模型现已与西方可用模型持平，且完全在华为芯片上训练
在华为芯片上训练的中国开源AI模型以十分之一成本媲美西方模型，威胁英伟达与Meta。
- 中国开源模型推理成本仅为十分之一且性能相当，正迅速抢占美国市场份额。
- 前沿模型现完全在更便宜的华为硬件上训练，削弱了英伟达的定价权和高利润率。
- 美国公司庞大的AI资本开支可能因更优的免费替代品而变得多余，面临巨额减值风险。
Chinese company Z.ai’s GLM5.2 model dropped a week back and it’s at par with the publicly available western models. The ceo says they will have Claude Mythos level model in a matter of months. Meanwhile Claude Mythos isn’t even available for most American companies at the moment.
The real kicker is this frontier level model from China was completely trained on Huawei chips.
A lot of people will cope here with “yeah they just distilled Claude”. To a certain extent looks like they did, atleast according to anthropic but people who have reviewed their paper say the company has done actually ground breaking work.
They have released this model for free, open source, MIT licence.
Their model trounces Meta’s best model. Head and shoulders above meta’s models. Now what happens to those $100s of billions of dollars meta spent on AI when a model far superior is available for free? meta should be writing a ton of those costs off as all that effort to train their model is now redundant.
The other big factor is that this frontier model was trained 100% using huawei hardware. This is awful news for NVIDIA. They command a 70% margin on their chips and have driven their US customers into an ocean of debt with their pricing. Huawei on the other hand seems to have much smaller margins and their chips cost a fraction of NVIDIA. Which means Chinese AI companies don’t need to raise and burn anywhere near the $$$ American AI companies do. All to be handed over to Jensen.
Openrouter recently showed that 50% of American customers now use Chinese open source models while 30% use American models. Just a year back, 70% of American customers used American models. It has now dropped to 30%. That’s because these Chinese models can be run at 1/10th the cost for inference. OpenAI is now considering lowering prices, while already losing $3 for $1 of compute they serve.
All signs flashing red for American AI industry. We could be approaching the last few months before financials become unavoidable.