r/investing
稀土股是真的死了，还是人们只是等得不耐烦了？
作者认为稀土正处于由AI、电动车和芯片需求驱动的爆发前瓶颈期，并看好MP、USAR、UUUU和UAMY。
- 磁铁和金属等物理输入是AI、电动车、芯片和国防的关键瓶颈。
- 当前板块的悲观情绪源于时间线推迟，而非缺乏基本面需求。
- 尽管板块普遍存在稀释和许可延迟问题，特定公司仍展现出巨大潜力。
- 许多稀土公司存在管理不善、股份稀释、项目薄弱和过度炒作的问题。
- 该板块表现痛苦，在许可、资金、加工和承购协议方面面临长期延迟。
I know this sector has been painful. A lot of these names had big stories, big expectations, then nothing really happened for a while. Some got diluted. Some are still waiting for permits, funding, processing, offtakes, government help, all of it.
So I understand why people call it a dead trade.
But I keep thinking about it differently.
The wheel came before the car.
At the time, the wheel was not exciting because there were no highways, no gas stations, no auto industry, no global supply chain built around it. But once the world found more uses for it, everything changed.
That is kind of how I see rare earths and critical minerals right now.
Everyone is talking about AI, drones, robotics, EVs, defense, wind, chips, data centers and the next industrial boom. But all of those things still need physical inputs. Magnets. Metals. Processing. Refining. Supply chain security.
Nobody wants to talk about the boring part until the boring part becomes the bottleneck.
I am not saying every rare earth stock will win. Most probably will not. There are plenty of bad companies in this space. Bad management, dilution, weak projects, hype, all of that is real.
But companies like $MP or $USAR or $UUUU or $UAMY and more seem very promising to me.
I think people just got exhausted because the story is taking longer than expected.
Maybe that means the trade is over. Or maybe this is the part of the cycle where everyone gives up before the real money starts paying attention again.
Curious what people here think. Are rare earth stocks actually done, or is this one of those sectors that only looks dead because the timing has not caught up with the need yet?