Netflix、Mastercard 和 Meta:我正在加仓的三只持仓
基于强劲的自由现金流、轻资产模式和优秀的管理层,作者正在加仓 NFLX、MA 和 META,尽管存在宏观和政治风险。
- NFLX 展现出强劲的自由现金流和低债务,即使收入增长可能放缓也能保持稳定。
- MA 受益于轻资产模式和双寡头市场份额,即使在宏观环境严峻的情况下也能产生强劲的现金流。
- 考虑到扎克伯格经过验证的领导力和公司持续的创新,META 的估值具有吸引力。
- NFLX 面临潜在的收入增长放缓以及来自其他流媒体巨头的激烈竞争。
- META 面临因党派情绪变化和选举结果带来的政治和监管风险。
Netflix has a free cash flow that is contradictory to how the market has been treating it in the past few weeks. Considering their debt is low enough that it isn't a wide concern (AKA No WBD merger), I can see this stock easily trading in the 80s range. I'm not saying it's worth a 90 or 100 dollars a piece. But a 10% gain before the end of the year, as long as the other streaming giants dont release an insanely good movie like Obsession, is well within reach. I bought and sold netflix shares a few months ago during all the WBD talks, and I consistently bought in the low 70s range and sold in the high 90s. This is the same scenario playing out. Even if revenue growth is expected to slow down, that doesn't change the fact that millions of households will be using netflix for at least the next few years. I think this stock is a buy.
Mastercard relies on very little physical liabilities for it's revenue. It is up to the merchant/buyer. Considering consumer spending sits at a generally high level even with all these concerns about a recession, household struggles, and a declining socioeconomic climate, when I go out, I see people making purchases more than they should be. Other than Visa, no other company can compare to mastercard's market share, meaning the free cash flow is also going to be quite healthy. This stock should not be trading below 500. I also can see a 500B market cap in this company in the near future, and I think these levels are just a good way to lower the cost bases.
Meta. This company is not worth 1.4T. Even if Meta doesn't have cloud services nor do they sell any products that meaningfully impacts revenue, Mark Zuckerberg is a person who knows what he is doing. He still has a good 20 or more years of leadership ahead of him, and the company is far from being past its prime. Political risks are something to consider, since general sentiment around the republican party sits at a strong negative, leading to potentially a democratic win for 2028, but you can always rebalance before then, and I think in the next two years, Meta can generate some serious profits with their ad business. Look at how many individuals betwen the ages of 10 and 40 use instagram. That number only continues to grow (instagram's growth is well in a positive trend).
I will be taking this opportunity to lower my cost bases for the stocks. I am not discovering anything fantastic, and I know we have talked about this many times here, but when the stock refuses to move, that in my eyes is just more time to convert cash into quality stocks at fair prices.

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