DJT 是不是搞砸了美国 AI 产业？

Listen up regards, cuz I know that thick skull is hard to get through.

2 weeks ago, Antropic's latest Claude Mythos 5 & Fable models got banned. Today news came out that this was "partially rolled back", but Mythos 5 is available to only 100 select companies.

Same deal different shit, OpenAI's 5.6 has also been restricted.

Problem is, these frontier labs have spent hundreds of billions now investing in GPUs and research, with nothing to show for it. Dario admitted himself that people pay for models with the highest intelligence.

https://preview.redd.it/uuztmvjjc0ah1.png?width=1440&format=png&auto=webp&s=b9b0c19f74de4ff95b5e0f8d5495d0163a2af189

We all know OpenAI & Anthropic trained these models on every piece of data not nailed down. But the problem is, Chinese AI companies are turning around and distilling from these big AI corpos.

GLM, Deepseek, Moonshot Kimi, MiniMax, Stepfun, Baidu Ernie, Alibaba Qwen, Xiaomi Mimo, Tencent, you name it.

Seems like everyone and their mom has a frontier LLM now. And now GLM 5.2 is near frontier level, with less than 5 percentage points difference from Opus 4.8 Medium-effort. But costs basically a fraction of Claude.

https://preview.redd.it/2d4eflz9e0ah1.png?width=2500&format=png&auto=webp&s=5f3798cd228ac827187e8cb2878042fb8a71b9fb

GLM 5.2 costs $4.4 per million output, while Opus 4.8 costs $25 per million output, nearly 85% lower cost.

Obviously everyone wants to use Fable/ChatGPT-5.6, but if you can't, and you're stuck at Opus 4.8, why shouldn't you just costs by 85%?

And if Fable/Mythos/ChatGPT-5.6 get unbanned? I'm betting open source LLM labs will just distill them again...

Now we have OpenAI is delaying their IPO, until maybe 2027 to clean up their balance sheet, I somehow don't think any of these frontier labs will ever make a single cent.

Could be just like the airline industry:

1. Massive capital costs (GPUs versus Planes)
2. Relatively fixed per user costs (No more SAAS cost reduction)
3. Basically commodity products (you got a small percentage of people paying for first class & super duper intelligence, while the rest of us plebs fly economy class on whoever is cheapest)
4. Tight security (manual identity verification versus TSA pat down)
5. Capital equipment leasing companies (Hyperscalers versus Aircraft Leasing Companies)

So what happens next?

OpenAI & Anthropic have their premium models basically banned, you got open source LLM companies being only a few months behind. Costs are not coming down, and these companies need to IPO to so retails can pass this onto the next sucker.

https://preview.redd.it/izezsc3wg0ah1.png?width=1347&format=png&auto=webp&s=ef2394e8285598ace92a2c86087cb2c198a5848b

Position: Puts on every AI company once they IPO 🐒