r/valueinvesting
美光深度分析
作者使用自定义的价值评分模型，认为尽管存在内存供应风险，美光在未来12个月内仍是强烈买入标的。
- 基于FY2027收入和利润率预测，自定义价值评分模型得出极高的13.7分。
- 即使在毛利率暴跌至40%的悲观情境下，价值评分仍高达8.2，远超买入阈值。
- 预计FY2026至FY2027年收入将强劲增长81%，显示出巨大的盈利潜力。
- 当前的内存热潮可能是暂时的，因为供应最终会赶上需求。
- 以销售未清天数衡量的库存水平已连续四个季度保持在120天左右的高位。
- 毛利率近期飙升至85%，这可能不可持续且容易大幅回调。
Micron reported earnings last Wednesday and many people want to know if there is still juice left to squeeze in the stock.
My framework for evaluating stocks is to compare the sum of the projected revenue growth and trailing operating margin to the ratio of enterprise value divided by projected operating income. This is summarized in a number that I call Value Score. The median Value Score for all publicly traded companies is about 1.0. If the Value Score is above 2.0, then I consider the stock a buy candidate.
The average FY 2027 revenue forecast from 40 analysts, as tracked by Yahoo Finance, is $234.56 billion, or 81% growth from FY 2026. I assumed the gross margin for FY 2027 drops to 60% and overhead is about 10% of revenue. With these assumptions, Micron’s Value Score is 13.7!
A lot of people prefer to look at free cash flow over operating income. On that basis, Micron’s Adjusted Value Score is 11.9.
The risk of MU is that the current frenzy for memory is temporary until supply eventually catches up with demand. I also track the company’s inventory levels, as measured by day’s sales outstanding. It has stood around 120 days for four quarters in a row. Meanwhile, gross margin exploded from the high 30s to 85% last quarter.
In summary, I believe MU is a Strong Buy for at least the next twelve months. Even if gross margin were to collapse back to 40%, the Value Score would still be 8.2, which is still far above my 2.0 threshold.
Who says good value has to be held for 2 decades? While I get the risk, this feels like there is still clear room to double or triple between now and 2027-2028.
If that’s the case, setting exit targets and sticking to when you rotate out seems most key.
I want to probably buy a basket of this, Hynix when available and $SNDK, but not sure of where else to go.
exactly. By the way, to quote another example, Wacker Chemie yielded: 3.81 in 2020, 16.24 in 2021, 25.18 in 2022.
With the logic of OP they should have been priced around 500 Euros per share in 2021/22. Difference is - there people had their thinking organs still switched on and priced the stock at a max of \~150 Euros. Was still too expensive ;- ), they dropped to 60 euros in 2025.
Fully agreed on CXMT ;- ).
That’s simply not accurate.
Can you expand on what you think will happen?
Micron's stuck paying a yield tax. Because TC-NCF requires applying heat and pressure to each die layer one by one, their defect rate shoots up as stack height grows. Hynix injects liquid underfill in one shot, which keeps defects down. Until Micron shifts toolsets or transitions to hybrid bonding for HBM4, their gross margins will probably lag Hynix by 5-10%. They'll have to overprovision capacity just to hit shipment guidance.
Can anyone explain why you would pick Micron over SK Hynix? Hynix is coming to the US on July 10.
I'm already up 320% on MU since December.
"this time is different" strikes again
MU is still undervalued.
Alright guys MU is safe. Thanks to this guy
I just think people worry too much about their stocks and can't keep their emotions away. Fundamentally stock is ok through 2028. People are just trying to time the cycle and overthink.
This sub is basically WSB now
Post Covid in 2023, Micron had an excessive amount of inventory during that period. I do think this makes could last for years, but I don't see it lasting for decades or as the new normal. Micron is going to come crawling back to consumers
Not yet
Has been, still is. Won’t be for long.