r/stockmarket
美光科技深度解析
作者使用自定义的 Value Score 模型预测美光 FY27 将实现大幅增长，尽管存在内存周期风险，仍将其评为强烈买入。
- 基于 FY27 增长预测，自定义的 Value Score 达到 13.7，远超 2.0 的买入阈值。
- 预计 FY2027 营收将达到 2345.6 亿美元，同比增长 81%，且利润率大幅扩张。
- 即使在毛利率暴跌至 40% 的悲观情况下，Value Score 仍高达 8.2，极具吸引力。
- 当前的内存狂热可能是暂时的，因为供应最终会赶上需求。
- 以应收账款周转天数衡量的库存水平已连续四个季度保持在 120 天左右的高位。
Micron reported earnings last Wednesday and many people want to know if there is still juice left to squeeze in the stock.
My framework for evaluating stocks is to compare the sum of the projected revenue growth and trailing operating margin to the ratio of enterprise value divided by projected operating income. This is summarized in a number that I call Value Score. The median Value Score for all publicly traded companies is about 1.0. If the Value Score is above 2.0, then I consider the stock a buy candidate.
The average FY 2027 revenue forecast from 40 analysts, as tracked by Yahoo Finance, is $234.56 billion, or 81% growth from FY 2026. I assumed the gross margin for FY 2027 drops to 60% and overhead is about 10% of revenue. With these assumptions, Micron’s Value Score is 13.7!
A lot of people prefer to look at free cash flow over operating income. On that basis, Micron’s Adjusted Value Score is 11.9.
The risk of MU is that the current frenzy for memory is temporary until supply eventually catches up with demand. I also track the company’s inventory levels, as measured by day’s sales outstanding. It has stood around 120 days for four quarters in a row. Meanwhile, gross margin exploded from the high 30s to 85% last quarter.
In summary, I believe MU is a Strong Buy for at least the next twelve months. Even if gross margin were to collapse back to 40%, the Value Score would still be 8.2, which is still far above my 2.0 threshold.
平均目標株価は1300-1500あたりです