r/securityanalysis
Alpargatas - $ALPA4.SA
Alpargatas ($ALPA4.SA) 凭借 Havaianas 在巴西的绝对市场份额及巨大的全球扩张潜力，具备极高的投资价值。
- Havaianas 在巴西鞋类市场占据超 65% 的人字拖份额，作为品牌必需品拥有类似可口可乐的定价权。
- 巨大的国际扩张潜力提供了极高的凸性，有望将其打造成类似 Birkenstock 或 Crocs 的全球标志性品牌。
- 业务已成功从疫情期间的库存过剩中恢复，结合了稳定的国内盈利与未来的增长催化剂。
Alpargatas is a historic footwear manufacturing company (oldest company still traded in the Brazilian exchange), with a rich history in Brazil and Argentina, creating category-defining brands in both countries. Like any old company, its portfolio has changed a lot over the years.
Today, Alpargatas’ only relevant asset is Havaianas, the largest flip-flop brand in Brazil, and, one could argue, maybe globally.
Within Brazil, Havaianas sells 200+ million pairs per year (almost exclusively flip-flops). This implies a 65%+ market share in the flip-flop category, and a 50%+ share within the wider sandal+slipper category.
Havainas sells 1 in every 4 pieces of footwear in the whole country! It’s branded-staple quality renders it similar to Coca-Cola: a product that carries the strongest psychological effects of brand power and yet is within the reach of anyone.
Outside of Brazil, Havaianas sells another 20 million pairs, which is a drop in the bucket of the global market (maybe as large as a couple billion pairs). However, Havaianas’ positioning outside of Brazil could eventually allow it to become a silhouette brand. Similar examples include Birkenstock, UGG, or Crocs. That is, internationally, Havaianas always holds the potential for very interesting convexity.
The business today has recovered from a deep downturn after the pandemic (classic inventory glut). It combines what I believe is a branded-staple product in Brazil that has a good ability to generate relatively stable earnings, with the potential of expanding that brand power to a massive category outside of Brazil.
The article covers the company in detail, including positioning in each market and segment, financial analysis, operational leverage models, taxes, management quality, capital returns, etc.