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全仓押注 TTWO，因为我觉得《GTA 6》会疯狂印钞。告诉我为什么我是个白痴。
投资者摘要看多
作者全仓押注 TTWO，押注《GTA 6》销量爆棚及线上模式长期吸金，但担忧发售后出现'买预期卖事实'的暴跌。
看多要点
- GTA 6 预计将取得巨大商业成功，销量破纪录。
- GTA Online 及未来的 PC/次世代主机移植版将提供长期、持续的现金流。
- R 星过往的成功经验表明其具备持续打造爆款的能力。
看空要点
- 市场可能已经提前消化了 GTA 6 巨大成功的预期。
- 发售后存在极高的“买预期、卖事实”风险，可能导致股价大幅下跌。
- 一款伟大的游戏并不必然等同于优秀的长期股票投资标的。
帖子正文
I've done what any financially responsible adult definitely wouldn't do.
I went heavily into TTWO because I can't shake the feeling that GTA 6 is going to be one of the biggest money-printing machines the entertainment industry has ever seen.
Here's my completely unbiased, totally not emotionally attached thesis:
- GTA 6 launches.
- The internet explodes.
- It sells an absurd number of copies.
- GTA Online becomes another decade-long cash machine.
- PC version prints more money.
- PS6/Xbox Next version prints even more money.
- Rockstar eventually drops RDR3 and starts the cycle all over again.
- I retire surrounded by NPCs.
Or...
The market has already priced in all of this, the stock dumps 20% after launch because of "buy the rumor, sell the news," and I become the proud owner of a very expensive lesson.
So roast me.
Seriously though:
- Are any of you long TTWO?
- Would you hold through GTA 6's launch?
- Is Rockstar one of those rare companies worth owning for 10+ years, or am I confusing an amazing game with an amazing investment?
Either convince me I'm a genius or explain where my thesis falls apart. I'd rather hear it now than after earnings.
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