r/valueinvesting
我看了147个Adobe股票视频来揭露YouTuber们！
作者观看了147个关于Adobe的YouTube视频，批评媒体的羊群效应，并认为尽管存在AI担忧，ADBE在200美元已被严重低估。
- 在200美元时股票被严重低估，AI竞争风险已完全计入估值倍数。
- 尽管目前出现回撤，但压缩的估值提供了强烈的长期持有机会。
- 需要更换CEO和CFO等新领导层，且ARR稳定后才可能出现可持续的结构性反弹。
- 增长放缓和不确定性增加从根本上降低了股票的公允价值。
Hey everyone, I am Adriconomics. I am a YouTuber and I have been a part of this value investing Reddit subs for quite a while now under a few different usernames.
I know the general sentiment around here regarding finance YouTubers is very negative, with a lot of mistrust. Most content out there is complete bullshit. iThat is why, to research my recent video, I decided to watch 147 different YouTuber videos completely dedicated to Adobe stock. I wanted to trace the chronological timeline of recommendations from the absolute top a couple of years ago straight down to the recent lows and exposed creators.
Honestly, I was impressed negatively by the herd mentality, but mostly by mainstream media. CNBC screaming that Adobe was a conviction buy at $600 is now spreading panic or pivoting its narrative now that it is around $200. Price action is entirely driving their fundamental sentiment, not the other way around.
I believe for most YouTubers it is different, but many big channels called it a buy again and again all the way down.
My Personal Take on Adobe
After thousands of minutes of Adobe content and re-running the numbers several times, here is my two cents.
- Leadership Problem: I firmly believe Adobe needs a new CEO and CFO as soon as possible. We need to see ARR stabilize before the stock can find a sustainable structural bounce.
- The Valuation: My fair value has definitely come down given the rise of uncertainty and growth deceleration. However, at $200, I believe the stock is significantly underpriced. The competitive risks from AI are already priced into this multiple.
I am a bag holder. I have been holding a personal position since $280. I will admit it hurts to look at right now, but I refuse to sell out at this compressed valuation.
What is your take? If you bought, were you influenced by any finance YouTubers?
My video is already doing great with the algo, so I'm honestly not here to scrape 10 more views or promote. But if you are curious to watch it, you can check it out here: