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r/wallstreetbets· u/moneygrabber007· 3 小时前DD 0

诺基亚 ($NOK) 在未来几年拥有一些引人入胜的增长机会

投资者摘要看多

作者认为诺基亚是被低估的科技巨头，凭借融入英伟达生态系统及与超大规模云厂商的合作，其在数据中心和光网络领域具有巨大增长潜力。

看多要点

诺基亚是一家被低估的大型科技公司，正经历积极的估值重估。
收购 Infinera 打造了光网络领域的巨头，使诺基亚能够利用数据中心革命的机遇。
深度融入英伟达生态系统，并与主要超大规模云厂商建立合作，提供强劲的增长催化剂。

NOK NVDAAI 资本开支

帖子正文

My Post a few weeks ago got some good traction so figured I would share another. Posted this earlier, but mods deleted. Added a picture of my position so hopefully this one stays up.

My thesis for Nokia has always been that it's Big Tech not priced like Big Tech. So promising to see all of the re-rating happening lately. Let's hope it continues.

In the meantime, wanted to share a few areas in which I believe Nokia can really grow in the coming years. Nokia is a large well diversified company with a lot going on.

If anyone accuses this of being AI slop, per my last post - this is from the dome.

Data Centers

Wanted to start with the big boy. Nokia aquiring Infinera created a powerhouse in optical networks, with the scale to power the data center revolution

What it really did was help Nokia finally get better ins with many hyperscalers.

Nokia is not in the business of building data centers, but it is involved in providing the equipment that goes inside them like routers and switching products.

Nokia has Data Center deals with Microsoft, Apple, Corresite, Coreweave, Telefónica, and Nscale (whom they are invested in).
They are also partnered with Nvidia, Supermicro, Lenovo, Dell, Kyndryl, and Fabrinet.

Nvidia buying $1B of $NOK really got the party started. If you could not tell by the partners and customers above, Nokia is part of the Nvidia ecosytem now.

These partnerships are leading to real results too.

AI & Cloud: grew 49% YOY and are now over 8% of total sales.
Hyperscalers: booked over $1B billion in new optical orders.
Optical Networks: surged 20% due to data center demand.

Lastly I will leave you with this video of Elon Musk. Say what you want about Elon, but the man is elite at predicting where tech goes.

He says "What we call a phone will be an edge node for AI inference with radios to connect. You’ll have AI on the server side communicating with AI on your device."

Space

Alledgedy by 2035, the Space Economy will be worth over $1T. Seeing as SpaceX just IPOed with a valuation over $2T, I'd say there is money to be made in space.

It was common during the meme stock craze, for degens to use "to the moon" when talking about Nokia because NASA chose Nokia to Build First Mobile Network on the Moon.

Even though Intuitive Machines (LUNR) messed up and tipped over, Nokia did power up their Lunar Surface Communications System and send data back to Earth.

Nokia is also working with Axiom Space to equip space suits with 4G LTE connectivity for the Artemis III mission in 2027.

Nokia is spinning off its space division to become Modul8, which I believe is a great move. Nokia will be majority owner and Modul8 can eventually be valued as a space company.

In the past, Nokia has listed satellite telecoms like Starlink as a risk to their legacy telecom business. They have also stated that terrestrial networks will always be superior.

I agree with this thinking and believe the 2 above examples show just that. The space economy is in its infancy and yet there are already a need for terrestrial networks.

Anyway, I bring this up as a segue to discuss AST SpaceMobile, (ASTS), a WSB darling.

If satellite telecoms do really take off, it appears like they are posied to be the leader. Well good new for Nokia as ASTS is an excellent customer and collaborator of Nokia.

Essentially ASTS does not exist or thrive without Nokia as Nokia supplies the RAN and the network core so ASTS can process data and route signals.
In 2023, Nokia and ASTS completed the first-ever 5G cell call from space directly to a smartphone using AT&T spectrum and Nokia's core network. More on AT&T later.

Nokia has been advocating that satellite connectivity is a big part of 6G for a while now which I believe is a smart choice.

They recently invested in ICEYE a Finnish microsatellite manufacturer and operator who is now the world's largest synthetic aperture imaging radar constellation.

Synthetic Aperture Radar satellites use microwave pulses to map the Earth's surface and have the ability to penetrate clouds, smoke, rain, and darkness. These satellites provide high-resolution terrain and environmental data that can be useful in the defense sector.

Defense

In 2024, Nokia aquired Fenix Group, a US tactical communications company. This helped create what today is Nokia Federal Solutions, their US defense segment based in VA.

They are doing some interesting stuff.

Earlier this year, they were awarded a SHIELD IDIQ contract by U.S. Missile Defense Agency. This contract has a ceiling of $151B.
They also work with Lockheed Martin, the largest defense contractor in the world. Last month they rolled out a mission-critical 5G solution for U.S. Department of War.

Drones

This likely goes hand in hand with Defense, but since Trump has been all about Drones lately, felt like it deserved its own section.

In March, Nokia partnered with Anduril the company that is arguably poised to be the US leader in drone and anti-drone defense for the foreseable future.

That partnership already seems to be bearing fruit, as Anduril has Added Nokia 5G Comms to Sentry Family of Systems.

At the end of 2024, Nokia and Motorola Announced a Drone Technology Integration for a Drone in a Box aimed at public safety and industrial operations.

Interested to see if Nokia Drone Networks does anything with their offering soon.

Quantum

I am not going to pretend like I understand what the hell Quantum Computing is, but I do know that Nokia Bell Labs is trying to make topological qubits needed for Quantum.

The practical uses of Quantum Nokia has stated so far are related to quantum security for Networks and Data Centers which add to the push of sovereign needs for both.

If you want to read up more on this, visit Nokia's Website. With Trump recently buying stakes in Quantum companies, it is good to see Nokia taking Quantum seriously.

Broadband

I saved the most boring one for last, even though broadband is still a big deal in the US.

The US government recently spent $42B on the Broadband Equity, Access, and Deployment (BEAD), the largest broadband infrastructure investment in U.S. history

AT&T famously Booted Nokia RAN out in Favor of Ericsson, back in 2023 giving Ericsson a $14B 5-year deal. This was a dark time in Nokia investor history.

However, my opinion on that deal was that Ericsson needed it BAD and gave away the farm to get it. In the long run, I have a feeling that will be a good thing for Nokia.
It showed that Nokia was willing to evolve. Instead of sticking with legacy telecom business, it walked away from a low margin, high labor deal.

Less than a year later, Nokia signed a Fiber Broadband Deal with AT&T to "provide fiber solutions in support of AT&T's future network footprint expansion and upgrades."

A few months later, Nokia Signed a 5G IMS Voice Core and Digital Operations software with AT&T. I am not a tech guy, but my general understanding is:

Radio Access Network RAN (Ericsson provides AT&T) is the wireless connection between your device and the network
IMS Core (Nokia provides AT&T) serves as the software engine that processes and routes IP-based services like voice calls and messaging over that connection.

All that said, then back in March, AT&T Announced a $250B US Investment to Improve Connectivity. Fiber and Infrastructure was mentioned several times in the release.

I am sure both Nokia and Ericsson will benefit from this. ASTS was also mentioned in the release which we learned above is a strong Nokia customer.

Conclusion

Never know how to wrap these things up, but obviously still bullish on $NOK. If I missed any other growth segments for the company, please share them below.

I am sure I missed something. Smart Cities and Smart Grids might find legs eventually.

Position:

Did not share last time, but my position is below. No options for this guy.