r/stockmarket
Salesforce 连续14个交易日下跌30%，前瞻市盈率仅10.5倍。软件板块的屠杀已完全脱离基本面。大家到底在干嘛？
尽管基本面强劲，CRM等软件股因资金历史性地轮动至半导体板块而暴跌，导致价格与基本面严重脱节。
- CRM 是一家占据主导地位、实现盈利并产生巨额自由现金流的企业软件公司。
- 前瞻市盈率仅为 10.5 倍，估值如同衰退期公司，与其强劲的基本面不符。
- 近期 SaaS 行业的利好消息多于利空，表明此次抛售是不理性的。
- 历史性的流动性轮动正激进地将资金从软件板块撤出，并涌入半导体板块。
- 市场正在无差别地抛售所有软件股，无法区分优质公司与垃圾公司。
- 市场广度极差，极少数科技和半导体股票拉动指数上涨，而 80% 的市场在流血。
Salesforce 过去14个交易日已下跌约30%。市盈率仅10.5倍，连续14个交易日收绿，$CRM 股价跌至2023年1月以来最低水平。
好好想想吧。全球最强势的企业软件公司之一，盈利稳定，自由现金流巨大，却以一个通常只适用于衰退企业的估值水平交易，且连续14天全线下跌。
这已经不是令人沮丧，而是荒谬得离谱。软件股每天都在崩盘，而半导体却一路狂飙，情绪之高涨甚至已超过互联网泡沫时期。这不是夸张——半导体的涨幅幅度已经超过了1999-2000年那一轮。与此同时，大多数软件股在三周内下跌了25%到35%，却找不到任何明确的原因。更离谱的是：过去一个月，关于SaaS行业的利好消息多于利空，但整个板块仍被无情屠杀。
真正发生的事是一场史无前例的资金轮动。资本正从整个行业撤出，集中涌入存储和半导体领域。无论基本面好坏，价值型标的要么惨淡，要么强劲，都被一视同仁地碾压。市场已经不再区分软件领域的优质资产与垃圾股，所有股票都以同样的方式被抛售。
就像市场认为半导体连续两天下跌就是违法一样。过去一年几乎不停上涨，每次回调都被迅速抄底。每一次轮动都只喂饱那几个核心标的。而其背后的市场广度，可能是历史上最差的。只有极少数科技、半导体和AI股票撑起指数创下历史新高，其余80%的市场则在悄然失血。
Meta 和微软在过去三周内均下跌近20%。依据什么新闻？没有任何基本面催化剂能解释地球上最大、最赚钱的两家公司为何会如此崩塌。这些绝非投机性标的，而是指数真正的支柱，如今却被当作“断头刀”来对待。
我真正感到困惑的是：每一个看空软件股的论点几乎都未受阻拦地被价格走势验证了，股价已经完全反映了灾难性的预期。AI颠覆的担忧、按席位定价转向智能体定价的转变、续约风险——这些都是真实存在的讨论议题。但现在的股价已经预示着这些企业接近彻底衰亡，尽管它们依然保持着两位数的有机增长，净收入留存率超过110%。这已不再是看空逻辑，而是市场在为根本不存在的死亡定价。
我也坦白说说情感层面的感受，因为我觉得很多人都在经历这种情绪。我嫉妒。看着低质量的半导体和AI股像诈骗一样暴涨数百个百分点，有人因此暴富，而我却坐在那些基本面强劲、却已遭重创一年的公司上，这种感觉真的令人沮丧。我也持有AI股，并非反科技。但我没买那些翻三倍的垃圾股，眼睁睁看着垃圾赢了，而优质资产被摧毁，这种痛苦是独一无二的。
所以，我现在真正纠结的问题是：软件和价值叙事究竟如何才能扭转局面？每一个看空的可能性都已被价格走势‘证明正确’，哪怕基本面根本不支持。现在看起来，逆转似乎已不可能。我们或许并未处于单一的巨大泡沫中，而是陷入了数十个特定半导体和AI个股的小泡沫里，这些个股的涨幅速度和时间压缩程度，未来任何公司都无法复制，而其他所有资产则陷入一场悄无声息的熊市。
这些领域里，基本面似乎已经不再重要。每天都是大规模抛售，这绝非夸大其词。当然，有些公司确实该死，也会倒闭。但强健的企业却被拖入同一泥潭，原因完全不合理，仅仅是因为它们属于哪个分类。
此刻卖出简直愚蠢透顶。把看似底部的东西砸掉，去追逐那些早已暴涨数百个百分点的高估标的，正是典型的两头吃亏。但继续持有，看着它每天再跌5%，又对信念构成前所未有的考验。
所以我真心想问问大家：你们现在到底在做什么？有没有人正在买入被错杀的优质标的？有没有人选择静观其变？我已经把现金全部用掉了。一年来在几十家公司上经历了上百次回调，根本无法再保留现金，这也给我上了宝贵一课：在一个特定行业持续下跌的市场中，过早平均成本是致命的。
这可能是我参与过的最不合逻辑、最不理性的、与基本面完全脱节的市场。对于那些经历过2000年、2008年、2020年的人，请问你们见过这么荒唐的情况吗？从我的角度看，只有科技、半导体和AI在支撑整个指数，其余一切都在默默被清算，市场广度之差，是我有生以来见过最糟糕的。
那么，真正的策略到底是什么？这种情况正慢慢把我逼疯。每天毫无理由地下跌，远非正常的价格行为。我持有个股，也接受波动，早已与之和解。我并不介意下跌是否由宏观因素引发，是否在整体市场调整中有合理解释，或是否有实际催化剂支撑。我能承受有原因的痛苦。
但这一切都不是。不到一个月内，数十家公司的市值蒸发了三分之一，却没有任何解释。数十亿、数百亿美元市值的公司，表现得像迷因币一样。今天跌5%，明天跌4%，日复一日，毫无支撑。这才是难以理解的地方。没有可回应的逻辑，没有可权衡的事件，只有机械式的持续出血。你该如何应对一个完全没有逻辑的东西？
Are you really comparing software companies, with global reach, making double digit growth, at 70% gross margins TODAY, with Blockbuster in 2004 when the company was stagnant for years and revenue was dropping? Just buy an ETF bro.
IMO, we're in a similar situation as before the GFC... Some people see the writing on the wall, but no one cares. Now it's a matter of how long can the market stay irrational. There are so many warning lights on the dashboard, but here are my favorites :
-80 yr old politicians telling us this is the future and invest public money in it(NEVER ends well)
-The most regarded, unprofitable, provably stupid ideas get floated around, and people clap their hands. Things such as orbital datacenters, or mini-datacenters bolted to house walls
TOTALLY a bubble. Remind the saying that goes "if your taxi driver talks to you about some stock, it's overbought, sell it right now ?" Well, now we're at the point where between rides, your Uber driver is yoloing his entire net worth with micron 0dte options on Robinhood.
Jesus, can't believe how far I had to scroll for someone to share a sane take. I guess i'm expecting too much from a popular sub.
This is so real and true it hurts. it seems investors are desperate for higher returns since the Mag7 are all taking a dump so they’re just piling into the highly leveraged, heavily debt-laden hyperscaler growth stocks with absolutely no concern for fundamentals
And it’s the exact same thing with Workday.
Good luck jumping ship from that.
Intel is a particularly interesting case. I was looking at it not too long ago, when it was 20$... I couldn't believe the amount of hate accross social media, it was like the unanimous opinion was that it was a shit company with shit product, and going to zero. I mean, historically if you were in the market for a CPU, it was either AMD or Intel... And sometimes AMD had some better price/performance deals for gaming, but Intel ALWAYS had the best CPUs. Now, AMD currently has bested Intel on their latest generation, but will that last forever ? Besides, Intel still wins on single core performance. Apple somehow managed to beat Intel on their latest processors, which is interesting, but irrelevant to most people on this planet cause they're not on IOS.
Intel also always had the best Wi-Fi modules, bar none, and as far as I know this is still the case. At a time when more and more stuff has Wi-Fi connectivity.
Intel also is unprofitable right now cause they're massively investing to produce next-gen products on US soil. Which is a big gamble, but it also could pay off massively. Didn't they reserve all of the machines that ASML will make this year, or something like that ?
Then Intel went up 6x on basically no new information... Crazy stuff. Like at some point people realized Intel was still making chips, which are the current theme, and it doesn't matter what they are or who makes them.
The $30 trillion question at the center of all of this: how is any of this supposed to create the kind of sustainable market needed to justify these valuations if nobody believes in any of the companies footing the CapEx bill?
That's the question I've been asking myself for years now... The answer I usually get is something like ''it can't be a bubble, the hardware sales are real''. Then I go ''that's precisely a bubble if the hardware is bought to perform unprofitable tasks''.
The funniest part is the schizophrenic disconnect between the whole ''short software long hardware'' theme. Look at how Palantir dropped hard from June 1st, exactly at the same time as the IGV etf. That eTF contains currently hated names such as SalesForce and ServiceNow, but also Palantir. And love them or hate them, Palantir's entire business is based on leveraging AI to increase productivity in large organizations... Youy know, the whole thing that people hope is going to justify the AI capex spending. THEY ARE DOING EXACTLY THAT, and they get shorted like they were some dinosaur legacy firm selling fax machine firmware.
I know PLTR still has a high valuation, just mentioning how the market recently seems to be lumping them will any and all other software companies.
Another funny example is MSTR. Most of their business is now their bitcoin accumulation strategy, but they are included in the IGV index as a software company. And the crazy thing is their software actually leverages AI tools. So anyone shorting the index is also shorting this company which actually makes money with AI, which should be the reason behing going long semis in the first place... The idea that the hardware will be in demand because at some point people will make money off it. And by shorting the index, you are also getting short bitcoin exposure, which should be a different conversation altogether.
blames the whole thing on Direxion's double/triple leverage long and short ETFs.
I pretty much doubt this is the root cause of the problem, as these are mostly retail products. Traditional wisdom says retail rarely moves the needle that much. And I suspect many people are using these for convenience, instead of options. As in, the volume you see there would probably be in the derivatives market instead if these ETFs didn't exist.
My gut feeling is the big players know a wall is coming, but the incentives aren't there to kill the hype train. Aside from SpaceX and the 2 insane IPOs coming, I think Google and others also raised massive amounts of money... Could be they know winter is coming, but they all think they can survive just fine if they can fill the coffers enough before it hits.
I used to sell ERP software and there's just nooo way this gets replaced by anything AI coded.
Even if it's just due to trust issues
AI companies that sell to each other in circles? Up 50x.
how about adobe? I bought a decent amount recently
I feel the same way about Service now being hyped up like crazy. It's is such a bad platform and doesn't have anything proprietary but they said they're working on agentic AI and people start pumping.
They would also need to keep updating it, have customer support at hand, liability issues etc. I’m sure some companies will make their own but hardly all. SaaS companies also have a lot of data that can’t be replicated very easily. If they can train AIs with this data specifically it does seem like a decent enough moat to keep competitors at bay to some extent at least.
Not going to lie. I this SaaS is fucking dead in the next 5. Maybe core, complex systems of record no. But building your own salesforce is 100% feasible for large corporations. Let’s not even talk about one-off niche tools like Anaplan, etc.
Picos y Palas ENFOQUE
Literally 30 sec read is intolerable for most people now 🤣
You're missing the big picture which is that Salesforce charges a ton of money to companies for a CRM to manage leads and a sales pipeline. Mark my words, this will be the first enterprise vibe coded app. Mid size companies that pay $1m/year for this will dump salesforce for cheaper options, and their AI isn't impressive enough to keep clients on the cutting edge. I work in the industry and have 30+ yrs of experience in enterprise software.
The stock market knows more than all of us combined. The tape is telling you some tiny real, I'm short IGV.