r/valueinvesting
为什么 SaaS 崩盘是巨大的礼物（彼得·林奇式操作）
SaaS 崩盘是买入良机；即将到来的财报将澄清 AI 的影响，且年底的税务亏损抛售可能导致股价进一步非理性下跌。
- 即将到来的财报将揭示 AI 是在放大 SaaS 业务而非颠覆它们。
- 机构年底的税务亏损抛售可能导致股价非理性下跌，从而创造买入机会。
- SaaS 巨头稳固的基本面使当前的崩盘成为长期投资者的巨大礼物。
- AI 可能实际上正在颠覆这些 SaaS 公司并导致业务长期衰退。
- 无论财报多好，由于激进的税务亏损抛售，股价在第四季度可能继续下跌。
像 INTU、ADBE、CRM、NOW 等 SaaS 巨头股价大幅下跌。我已经开始在其中几只股票上建仓，老实说，只要基本面依然稳健，我甚至乐见价格进一步下探。
但接下来的六个月对长期投资者而言是巨大的机会。原因如下：
- 接下来两次财报将揭示真相： 现在人人都在恐慌AI。而接下来的两份财报终于会让我们看清现实——AI究竟是真正颠覆了这些公司，导致它们业绩下滑，还是在持续推动它们增长，同时继续超出预期？
- 彼得·林奇的税务抛售效应： 即便这些公司业绩爆表，也别指望股价在今年晚些时候不再继续下跌。彼得·林奇曾指出，每年第四季度，大型对冲基金和散户投资者都会大规模抛售亏损的股票。他们这么做是为了“税务损失收割”——在年底前卖出亏损持仓，用来抵消盈利交易所应缴纳的税款。当所有人都为了一个税务抵扣而同时涌向出口时，就会压低股价。
核心结论： 我们即将看到这些公司的基本面是否真的稳固。如果即将到来的财报显示这些企业并未被AI颠覆，且仍在持续超预期，但我们在11月到12月仍遭遇股价暴跌——那对长期投资者来说，就是一份天赐大礼。
there’s menial tasks all the time. updating terraform, refactoring code, updating a readme, writing basic unit tests, etc. it’s been pretty nice to just ask claude cut a pr for a small task and it do it for me while I work on harder problems.
I find that's not true. I'm automating the creative things too, Claude makes decent decisions most of the time and I only intervene when it's wrong.
I'm a strong believer that AI will not disrupt SaaS at all.
But the thing is ADBE was a bad stock and a bad company before AI, I would not invest in it.
the thing is tho. majority of people in a company do menial b.s tasks. Becky basically only makes excel sheets and sends mails.
Yes I mentioned this in another reply. I don't believe the AI productivity boost scales to the whole organization. If I work too fast I just create a backlog... it requires structural change and likely layoffs to get past that.
The keyword here is DECADE. Most SaaS should be priced now below 10 PE or they are still overpriced.
10x is an understatement for me
Not me personally as I no longer code for living, but others in my firm are very productive on two fronts - new features and retiring tech debt. Maintenance is what they are working out. We already have almost 5K devs on it and more will be onboarded.
I think the threat is for body-shop consulting firms and all those MSPs need to figure out their new revenue model
I sold at 269, did TLH and bought MU at 992. Sold MU at 1225 today. Covered half my loses on INTU already. One more trade and I will be net positive. I ain't married to a stock.
I don't want to imply that AI hasn't led to rapid productivity improvements. It has. I just think that expectations are misaligned with reality. There seems to be this notion that AI is or will soon be autonomous, that it's somehow capable of critical thinking or judgment, and doing things on its own (replacing humans, replacing purpose-built software). IME it has terrible judgment. In the software world it's great for coding. If you're not using it, you should. It has a lot of uses beyond coding. But it's designed to do a task and nothing more. With investments like RAG, agentic flows, context engineering, custom training, etc., it can do so much. But those investments are not one time. They are ongoing. And if you shift investments from traditional to AI, what's the net productivity gain?
Depends on what you do. Not everything in SW is a CRUD web app. It's just the most visible.
It seems like 99 percent of people think AI is only good for crud apps and simple things. I found the hard things is precisely where it's more useful, it's very smart, like a supercharged senior.
OP isn't talking about software engineer productivity. This is organizational change productivity and I can positively say from my experience that while the new shiny object has a lot of promise, exiting existing ERP and ERP lite enterprise systems for a hope and a dream isn't happening any time soon.
You keep suggesting that the AI written code is worse.
And AI can simulate ownership and authorship, just like it simulates writing code.