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r/valueinvestingr/valueinvesting· u/k0stj· 5 天前Discussion 118

下一个价值投资标的。是 NOW、MSFT、CRM 还是 INTU？

投资者摘要看多

作者看好 INTU 的质量与估值上行潜力，以及 CRM 的低估值，同时指出 MSFT 和 NOW 质量虽高但估值已充分反映。

看多要点
  • INTU 提供了顶级软件复合增长且没有极端溢价。
  • CRM 在传统指标上最便宜且自由现金流强劲。
  • MSFT 和 NOW 代表了极其安全且高质量的业务。
看空要点
  • MSFT 和 NOW 很少便宜且交易存在溢价，限制了价值上行空间。
  • CRM 的增长已从超高速增长期放缓，引发市场怀疑。
INTUCRMMSFT价值 / 回购
帖子正文
高质量模型翻译结果

INTU

  • 相对于当前估值，拥有最高质量的业务。
  • 在TurboTax、Credit Karma和QuickBooks领域占据主导地位。
  • 转换成本极高。
  • AI 很可能强化而非破坏其护城河。
  • 当前股价远低于几年前投资者愿意支付的溢价水平。

CRM

  • 在传统指标下价格最便宜。
  • 现金流生成能力强劲。
  • 市场仍有一定疑虑，因为增长已从高速增长期放缓。
  • 如果增长哪怕小幅回升，估值扩张也能为回报增添助力。

MSFT

  • 可能是最稳妥的选择。
  • Azure + AI + Office + Windows 构成了一套无与伦比的组合。
  • 但市场早已认识到这一点，因此估值折扣并不显著。
  • 风险调整后回报极佳，但在四家公司中并非最大的“价值”标的。

NOW

  • 从运营角度看，可能是这组公司中最好的业务。
  • 但股价很少变得便宜。
  • 你为卓越的执行能力和长远的发展空间支付了溢价。
  • 我只有在经历大幅回调后，才会将其视为价值投资。

如果我现在要用新资金寻找 质量 + 估值上行潜力 最佳组合，我会偏好：

INTU > CRM > MSFT > NOW

若只看纯粹的质量，不考虑估值：

NOW ≈ MSFT > INTU > CRM

有趣的是，INTU 是这里唯一一个你可以合理主张——以不过分溢价买入顶级软件复利企业的情况。

讨论 · 高赞评论15 条精选
u/EquivalentRegion5363 14· 4 天前

just buy mfst, best quality and safest stock from your list. azure gonna be number 1 soon for cloud market share.

u/One-Hearing2926 5· 4 天前

What makes you think azure is going to be no1 for cloud market share? Amazon is still miles ahead globally

u/OilAny787 12· 4 天前

This guy gets it, just bought into meta and have another order at $550, $1k stock in the making soon.

u/SaggyBallz99 10· 4 天前

I hate that it’s come to this but Trump has invested heavily in NOW so I guess it’s NOW

u/Rph55yi 9· 5 天前

Corporate accountants are not going to risk their career on an AI app. They use the accounting software for accountability purposes. They will sue INTU auditors if something goes wrong but who do you sue if AI messes up?

INTU has a strong reputation in the corporate world.

u/Chidling 4· 5 天前

Well the biggest users of quickbooks are mostly small businesses. Not corporate accountants. Imo small businesses are the highest flight possibility simply because they have the lowest switching costs.

u/Rph55yi 6· 5 天前

I remember 20 years ago people said INTU did not stand a chance. Too much software piracy was going on. Why go to the store and buy their software when you can download a bootlegged version online instead?

Also MSFT was using their windows monopoly to destroy software companies by bundling software preloaded into windows. Microsoft Money software bundle was a threat to INTU.

Yet INTU managed to survive....

u/PotatoMissionStart 5· 5 天前

ERPs from Oracle, SAP, etc.

u/Rph55yi 5· 5 天前

MSFT was flat between 2000-2010. It took 10 years to recover from dot com bust.

u/Confident_Potato_714 7· 4 天前

Based on your posts here, you’re an index investor.

u/Avidtrader81 5· 5 天前

And ai isn't going to be able to do all the specific categorization of financials.

u/Machievelliearoni 4· 4 天前

WEN

u/EconomicsOk3346 4· 4 天前

Y'all will just say anything now huh

u/gigachad_destroyer 4· 4 天前

"None of these are value plays until we see how Ai plays out." Is like saying "None of these are value plays until they 2-3x" the whole point why they are value plays is that their valuations are depressed due to AI fears.

u/Rph55yi 4· 5 天前

I remember holding MSFT after the dot com crash and it traded flat between 2000-2010.

What if the AI bubble bursts and MSFT stays flat for another 10 years again ?

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