r/valueinvesting
$CRM 是否正以内在价值的 60% 进行交易？
作者的 DCF 模型测算 $CRM 每股价值 248 美元，远高于当前 150 美元，理由包括强劲的 FCF、大规模回购及 AI 营收激增。
- DCF 估值显示股票存在显著折价（当前股价仅为内在价值 248 美元的 61%）。
- 管理层授权了 250 亿美元的债务融资大规模回购，彰显对股票被低估的信心。
- AI 业务加速增长，Agentforce 年化经常性收入达到 12 亿美元，同比增长 205%。
- 250 亿美元的债务融资回购增加了利息支出，导致自由现金流增长预期被下调。
- 由于新增债务导致资产负债表调整项出现显著负值（-196.7 亿美元），降低了计算出的股权价值。
Salesforce 的过去十二个月自由现金流约为 146.6 亿美元。管理层指引 FY2027 自由现金流增长率为 4% 至 5%。资产负债表调整项为 -196.7 亿美元，计算方式为现金、可交易证券及战略投资减去债务，其中包括因 250 亿美元债务融资回购股票所产生的新增债务。
使用简单的贴现现金流模型：
- 初始自由现金流：146.6 亿美元
- 五年增长率：5%
- 终值增长率：2.5%
- 折现率：10%
- 资产负债表调整项：-196.7 亿美元
- 流通股数：81.9 亿股
由此估算出的股权价值约为 2030 亿美元，即每股 248 美元。而 $CRM 当前股价约为 150 美元，相当于计算得出的内在价值的约 61%。
Salesforce 还有几项优势：
管理层批准了一项大规模股票回购计划，表明他们认为股价被低估了。
FY2027 年第一季度营收同比增长 13%，达到 111 亿美元，其中订阅与支持收入同比增长 14%。自由现金流增长展望下调，主要反映了 250 亿美元债务融资回购带来的还债支出。
Salesforce 正在成为人工智能领域的重要参与者。截至 FY2027 年第一季度，Agentforce 的年度经常性收入（ARR）已达 12 亿美元，同比大增 205%。
80% SaaS companies are a big BUY in this market and CRM in that 80%.
They’ve brought multiple customers on to the past two earnings calls to talk about how they’re using agentforce
Sweet, the next thing on my list to do was to listen to the last few earnings calls and read the reports
NOW is better
NOW too has an AI Agent.
But as I mentioned in another comment, I agree it is better because their main goal is to transform their value proposition (which they have been at it for awhile back) from just an ITSM Platform, into a workflow control tower layer, overseeing and deploying various Agentic Agents across workflows.
If ServiceNow was just relying purely on NowAssist, like how Salesforce is relying on AgentForce, I would not have bought in as much as I had.
Their expanded and growing platform layer, with their increased partnerships, will ensure they emerge one of the winners when the dust settles.
Yep, growth is also much higher and customer retention is very high fundamentals looo better it’s a richer valuation but historically NOW has always been very high valuation so this is now relative to it. I don’t see ai replacing service now but I could see margin compression
Yep agreed you can't vibe code a platform, let alone a stable and trusted platform. For the same target audience as ServiceNow. You will need years for that, but also for credibility and time in generating that.
And yea, I do agree the margin compressions are real. Hence why every SaaS gets re-rated. And this all SaaS, including ServiceNow, are brought back to the starting point of a "Show-me" race, to see which SaaS company survives this AI Industrialization.
You have to adjust their net income, PE and so on for their stock based compensation (which is a reale expense). Salesforce is close to fair value for me at a forward PE of 20 (adjusted for SBC).
Agentforce includes Slack which is becoming the AI OS, basically a message bus for AI agents to work together
I'm imagining something like Cursor, but with access to enterprise data instead of a code repo. Plus, they own Slack and few other tools, that could be a good fit for AI agent automation
I came to the same conclusion from my analysis. I'm already up $9.9.
Buy CRM full port!
The only danger to the CRM revival thesis is that Anthropic and OpenAI enter a pricing war which further decreases tokenized costs, allowing greater access to their LLMs and leading to more Agentic AI build-outs. Which in turn threatens existing premiums for AgentForce, and anyone else thinking that integration of AI into their software means building their own AI Agent.....
They have their own xLAM model plus the lower token prices would probably increase the margins so that’s bullish for Agentforce
Is $CRM trading at 60% of its intrinsic value?
No.