价值回归：今天你只是看到了即将到来的一个小预演……

投资者摘要看多

作者预测随着AI泡沫破裂将出现价值回归，看好CRM等SaaS股强劲的自由现金流和稳健的资产负债表。

看多要点

资金正从投机性AI资产转向基本面强劲、被低估的SaaS公司。
SaaS公司拥有坚如磐石的资产负债表和强劲的自由现金流，非常适合高通胀和高利率环境。
当前市场趋势表明资金配置正常规性地转向价值股。

CRM降息与宏观价值 / 回购

帖子正文

高质量模型翻译结果

今天是一个绝佳的预演，展示了当资本从高风险、投机性资产转向基本面强劲且被低估的资产时所出现的"价值避风港"现象。人工智能股票正在下跌，而此前在本子论坛上被反复讨论的SaaS公司则在上涨。

这只是短短一天的情况，短期内会发生什么还不得而知，但今天只是AI泡沫破裂时可能发生的情景的一个小小缩影。像CRM、NOW这样的SaaS公司，此前遭受打压，未来将会上涨。

此外，在通胀高企和利率上升的时期，资金会流向自由现金流高的企业，而这些SaaS公司拥有稳固的资产负债表和强劲的现金流。

这类市场趋势一再重演，是常规且标准的资金配置方式。如果你有中长期视角却未为此做准备，那真的应该认真花些时间思考一下。

讨论 · 高赞评论15 条精选

u/AlGAdams 37· 2 天前

Yeah they may be up 800%, but lets not forget who has the moral high ground.

u/Ambitious_Arm852 16· 2 天前

Value investors sound smart while they lose money

Growth and momentum investors sound dumb while they earn money

u/ZarathustraGlobulus 5· 1 天前

Value investors sound smart while they lose money

Is it not smart for a man to lose on his investments, if he tells you it was deliberate? Perchance.

u/xAlpharaptor 24· 2 天前

Try not to go straight to ad hominem attacks it immediately discredits whatever else you're about to say.

u/scoofy 17· 2 天前

The number one trap I've fallen into as a value investor has been well loved companies slowly losing their edge and their business model, falling out of fashion and dying a slow death.

They look exactly like sure-thing undervalued companies, because time and time again, all the estimates and ratios point toward their long time growth rate, and great value opportunity, when that growth rate is a fiction from a decade earlier.

My rule of thumb now is that, if the value play is an institution, and not a small cap Russell stock, I really need to give it a second look, and I need to actually talk to people who use the product and see what they think.

u/Icy_Distance8205 15· 2 天前

In that case I’m Jesus.

u/xAlpharaptor 11· 2 天前

I can read between the lines. He's saying that there's a huge shift coming and based on one day of price action. He's using one data point to try to validate his opinion of a massive shift.

u/Olakalolaa 10· 2 天前

half cash / half news?

u/yikaiy 8· 2 天前

NVIDIA, Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google are all customers of Servicenow. 97% customer renewal rate. 20% revenue growth a year. They are successfully moving to usage/outcome based pricing and away from seat based revenue.

A company like this deserves a premium over CSU where if you take away its acquisitions it is barely growing.

Not all software is the same. If you think it is, then sure buy ADBE, the cheapest of the bunch, and pray that their outdated business can continue squeezing money from their declining customer base.

u/Ok-Recommendation925 7· 2 天前

This OP is gonna curse the SaaS baggies....I swear he probably is a child that felt the urge to do a victory lap 😂

u/NoBicDeal 6· 2 天前

With this post, the wall street is again drive down SAAS again. THANKS OP!

u/Ronbilty99 7· 2 天前

Bro is comparing 5% gain compare to a generational run this past year 800-900% gain on AI buildouts.

u/awakening_brain 6· 2 天前

value investor claiming victory after end of quarter re-balancing

u/Lanky_Drawer_2792 6· 2 天前

It's just a tool. Good one, if you know how to use it. That's it. Anybody who actually uses it to deliver PROFESSIONAL results know this.

u/Deathb3rry 5· 2 天前

Another low substance FOMO post 🤣 you must have forgotten the dead cat bounce at End May, and it was merely a month ago. Anything can happen in the market, don't be so naive to think a days worth of a big green candle means a reversal

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