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r/stocksr/stocks· u/chkrlee· 2 天前 0

“AI 正在杀死(按席位收费的)SaaS”这种说法很蠢。

投资者摘要看多

SaaS 业内人士反驳 AI 杀死按席位 SaaS 的观点,指出使用量和支出增加,且 CRM 等记录系统极具韧性。

看多要点
  • 企业更倾向于专注核心业务,而不是让昂贵的工程师去开发定制 AI 工具。
  • 通过 API 集成 AI 增加了用户交互,推动了 AI 信用消耗和席位数的双重增长。
  • 记录系统深度嵌入企业,替换成本高且风险大,对 AI 颠覆具有极强的韧性。
CRMAI 资本开支
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高质量模型翻译结果

我在 SaaS 行业工作。以下是几个常见担忧,逐一拆解:

  1. 人们会自己搞个 vibe 化的 SaaS

不对。便宜的软件一直和 SaaS 的主流产品共存。人们依然选择主流产品,是有原因的。任何正在成长的企业,尤其是规模化之后,更应该专注于核心业务的发展,而不是把昂贵的资源(工程师)投入到各种旁支末节中,去自己搞一堆 vibe 化的 SaaS。

  1. AI 会取代人类,从而吃掉用户数。

实际上我们看到的情况是,人们花的钱反而更多了。因为所有 SaaS 公司现在都通过 API/CLI/MCP 暴露了他们的工作流和数据,所以人类现在都是通过自己的原生聊天客户端(比如 Claude 和 ChatGPT)来访问所有功能。这样一来,由于和 SaaS 的交互变得极其简单(甚至不用登录就能问“最近这个线索怎么样了?”),你就会忍不住频繁提问、完成大量操作。AI 使用额度在飙升,同时用户数也在增长。

当然,确实存在一种末日情景——如果 AI 完全取代了所有白领工作者,那用户数就真的凉了。但如果整个社会的白领都失业了,我们面临的将是更大的问题。

  1. AI 实验室要来抢 SaaS 的生意。

对某些领域可能如此。Claude Design 确实是在盯着 Figma。但不太可能被取代的是核心系统(比如 Salesforce 和 HubSpot 这类 CRM,Workday、Oracle、SAP 这类 HCM 工具),因为把这些系统换掉实在太痛苦了,而且任何来自 vibe 化工具的安全漏洞(尤其是这类工具)都等于组织自杀(想想银行之类)。我们有一份投资者演示文稿,里面展示了对 500 多家公司的调查,问他们未来五年最想替换什么。结果最低的一项就是核心系统。

讨论 · 高赞评论15 条精选
u/distroyaar 18· 1 天前

Exactly, SaaS had high multiples because of high margins and consistent high growth. Now that the high margins and growth are called into question it makes sense that SaaS may derate permanently.

It may not be as crazy doom and gloom as people are claiming but going from 20-30% annual growth to 5-10% growth can see multiples drop significantly.

u/didnt_knew 5· 1 天前

maintained for 300k/year? So one engineer? ya that’s not happening lol

u/hecubus04 6· 1 天前

I bet the 300k was token usage projection 🤣

u/fuck_thots 3· 1 天前

Migrated all the data from Salesforce objects to our Azure DB before transition. Copied the Salesforce objects/tables schema 1:1, for the new system. New system writes to the tables migrated to Azure DB, with the exact same column structure.

From my perspective, which is financial controlling/sales analytics teams, not much has changed i just query the new table instead of the Salesforce object.

u/something-behind-him 3· 1 天前

Didn’t snowflake wiped some company’s entire records?

u/Danne660 2· 1 天前

What do you mean raw quality?

Here is an example of improvements, let say you have a trillion parameters, but you only run 100 billion of them that are relevant to the work currently being done.

u/Danne660 2· 1 天前

Do you honestly think the only improvment that have been made to LLMs is adding more parameters?

u/YogurtclosetOther329 1· 7 小时前

companies relearning old lessons, tale as old as history.

u/Screendrama 1· 9 小时前

Exactly this. AI already is, and will become exponentially more effective in building and implementing the software and technical infrastructure, but this is only part of a business. People overestimate the disruptive power in that sense. Surely a lot of lesser SaaS companies will go out of business, but the bigger players have vast advantages in their reach, trust, and interconnectedness and can leverage this to compete with startups, especially considering they're using AI to the fullest themselves.

u/scuppered_polaris 1· 9 小时前

I think the poeple creating products from ai are often the tech enabled end users of existing Saas products with missing features. Possibly ai makes it more difficult to roadmap features or up sell accounts when clients just vibe code their own solutions

u/LegendOfJeff 1· 11 小时前

Right. Saas isn't doomed. But most Saas companies were at too high a premium in 24.

u/NegativeSemicolon 1· 12 小时前

Stick to PCB’s and not licensing agreements 👋

u/IceIceBaby33 1· 13 小时前

Developing products was never an issue. If not 5-7 people, even 100 people would have done the damage already without AI or with minimal use of AI. Doing business involves other risks, like having accountability, talking to people to get things done, execution, resolving issues, and lot more. That's the part AI can't replace and it is way more than 60% of the work.

When I have an issue and call, I keep saying 'talk to an agent's until I find a human. If I can't, I'll close the account with that company. I'll be so pissed if I receive automatic replies when my questions are not standard and bots can't answer them and keep giving replies in circles. Pretty sure everyone else share the same frustration.

So, development bottlement was never a big issue in the past.

u/PlutoPlaneta 1· 16 小时前

Sarcasm isnt a smart response or serious counter argument.

u/AphaedrusGaming 1· 7 小时前

It's tit for tat, nothing in what I replied to invalidated what I was saying. It's just kind of nonsense rationale without substance