r/baba
Qwen 3.6 impact
Bullish DD on BABA projecting $190-$240 EOY target driven by Qwen 3.6 adoption, cloud AI growth, and margin recovery.
- Qwen 3.6 could become China's enterprise AI OS with strong adoption across Alibaba's ecosystem and by external developers.
- Cloud AI revenue is approaching an inflection point, with AI projected to exceed 50% of cloud revenue and sustain 40%+ growth.
- Margin recovery expected by late 2026 as AI capex stabilizes, quick commerce losses shrink, and operating leverage kicks in.
Analyst Bull Case with Qwen 3.6+ Breakout Bull case EOY targets $190–$240+
If Qwen becomes “China’s enterprise AI OS”
• Strong adoption inside Alibaba ecosystem (Taobao, Cainiao, AIDC)
• Developers build on Qwen API at scale
Cloud AI revenue inflection
• AI becomes >50% of cloud revenue (already trending toward this) 
• Cloud growth sustains ~40%+
Margin recovery starts late 2026
• AI capex stabilizes
• quick commerce losses shrink
• operating leverage kicks in
Have to say, Qwen 3.6 is meaningfully better than 3.5. And 3.5 was a huge leap from 3.0. The dense model with and without thinking stops me from reaching for Claude half the time.