r/nio
NIO Q1 gut feeling
Author projects NIO to achieve $20-30M profit in Q1 2026 based on scaled Q4 financials and reduced charging station deployment.
- Projected Q1 2026 revenue of $3.73B could yield a net profit of $20-30M assuming stable margins.
- Lower charging station deployment in Q1 (85 vs 139 in Q4) reduces capital expenditure drag on profitability.
NIO 4th qtr vehicle sales were 124k+ with 18.1% vehicle margin on Vehicle revenue of $4.52 billion on a total q4 revenue of $4.95 billion with total margin 17.5% . Meaning other sales were 435.3 million with other margin of about 11.9%
Projection on Q1 possible :
NIO 1st qtr 2026 vehicle sales (4.52b / 124,804 ) \* 83465 = $3.3 billion approx plus other sales (let’s keep it same at 400 million)
Gross revenue = 3.3b plus 400mill = 3.73 billion.
Keeping gross margins the same and expenses the same we SHOULD See a same ratio profit (minus the cost of 100+ charging stations) so ..
I am projecting :
40 million \* (3.73 / 4.95) = 30.44 million profit
Now subtract the extra 5th generation stations deployed 139 in q4 and in q1 2026 only 85 charging stations deployed. Accounting for increase in price I say
NIO has a 20-30 million profit.
You forgot to mention NIO laid off 10,000 R&D employees last quarter. So it’s a massive savings on payroll this quarter!
I stand corrected. The cost per vehicle to manufacture in China for NIO has increased by $1460 per vehicle. So for q1 83465 \* 1460 =121,858,900 additional cost.
So assuming NIO had 40 million profit by my calculations minus 121,858,900 will make it an $80 million loss
Or on 2billion shares 0.04 cents loss
two profitable quarters in a row would be amazing, especially since the 1st qtr is notorious for being the worst. I picked up another 1k shares today. Said I would stop at 50k, nope fuck it
This quarter Q1 is NOT profitable. No profitability alerts were issued, so NO profitability.
Still, at this stage margins for Q1 and forecast for Q2 and FY2026 are much more important
This aged well
Hahahahhahaha
I hope you're right but I'm projecting a loss of between 100 and 150 mil, which is a great improvement!
I agree with you . I have a 40 million profit but then the cost if vehicle increase by 121 million giving a 80 million loss. See above . You are right
Nio reports Q1 operating profit, marking its second consecutive quarter of non-GAAP profitability
Its even better Q1 earnings
Day 6 in HK and its red again.....
NIO is not in US
You came pretty close!
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Its Q1, I think its unreasonable to expect a profit but it'll be way better than a year ago and ultimately Nio will have a profitable 2026.