r/nio
My thinking on Macro Effects, China, and NIO. Share your opinions please.
Bullish on NIO due to better-than-expected EPS, China's macro resilience against US bond yields and geopolitical risks, and oversold RSI.
- Better-than-expected EPS ($0.0 vs -$0.24 estimated) shows improving financial performance.
- China's strategic preparation for energy/raw materials and reduction of US Treasury holdings shields Chinese stocks from US bond yield spikes and geopolitical shocks.
- Technical indicators (RSI at 24.01) suggest the stock is deeply oversold and poised for a rebound after short-term pain.
- Potential negative impacts from the ongoing Iran war on future earnings and global energy markets.
- Immediate short-term pain expected over the next 1-2 weeks before any technical rebound occurs.
- China's crackdown on unregistered traders may cause negative immediate-term market disruptions.
https://preview.redd.it/zcu3fdug153h1.png?width=1320&format=png&auto=webp&s=3e196b8d368f1167b4278f9523cd006066dc49c1
Estimated EPS was -$0.24 where as actual was $0.0. The current Iran war might effect next earnings call. But we saw that China already prepared for this in terms of energy shortage possibility and raw material stocks. This means NIO is better shielded compared to our American stocks. Plus US bond yields are going up which might make Chinese stocks better choice. The recent chinese crack down on unregistered traders could be a blessing in the short, medium and long term while having negative effects in the immediate term.
Some articles that detail this approach:
1) https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/06/business/china-oil-shock-iran-war.html
2) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hoQvMz0I8-w
3) https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/20/china/china-energy-security-global-oil-crisis-iran-intl-hnk
Recent U.S. Treasury data from May 2026 shows that China’s holdings have dropped to $652.3 billion—their lowest level since the 2008 global financial crisis. This marks a precipitous decline of roughly 50% from China's peak holdings of over $1.3 trillion in 2013. Which means the growing bond yield's negative effect has a lower negative effect on China. Making Chinese stocks more effective.
Lastly the RSI chart shows that the sell off currently at 24.01, with the worst being 16.63.
I think we can expect immediate 1-2 weeks of pain before the re-bound starts.
I already a few thousand shares and plan to collect a few more doing Dollar Cost Averaging. My expectation is the worst case could be $4, but I am hoping it ends at $4.78 as the charts show.
https://preview.redd.it/n1cyog27453h1.png?width=3454&format=png&auto=webp&s=b68b074cc46264f47e97a2bc8c40ad36f9487b41
Nio battery swapping system will save the world.
NIO is rapidly improving. Macro situation improvement will only boost it along with more peaceful climate in the world.
Whatever is not important anymore, if main retail investors from mainland cant get access to NIO shares. They are the one who experience NIO real car first hand and real improvement.
Hope there is turning points to this or there's chinese stocks rally to saved retail investors
The funds are allowed 2 years to clear their now / to be “illegal” holdings. So not sure if we are in the clear yet.
First wave panic sales over? let's see what happens today
The truth is, US is losing its holdover. Countries are now open to trading with Russia for oil and Russia is only using two currencies. One of them is being the Chinese yuan. There is another effect which is Indonesia being captured by the influence of the US closing down the street that the Chinese uses in order to transport oil from Iran. But overall, we see that China is truly one of the global superpowers that is influencing. I believe these other countries from fully hailstorming Russia, or Iran. The monetary collapse of the US dollar is imminent, thus the gold buying and economic reset that occurs cyclically, we are a little over 50 years since our last reset.
I believe US power should be its soft power of democracy wrapped in a tight protective shield of its military. But it seems like the opposite happens. To defeat Iran or other such regimes USA does not need a war, our soft power is enough to make people feel the need for Democracy. There is a reason why women in Iran revolted against the regime risking their lives, and that is the freedom of thought, speech, religion etc.,
USA needs a war because they spend half of their budget every year, ranking above the next 10 nations combined. To the US, selling arms and munition is business. War funds this investment. The Ukraine war was not donated by the US, they gave Ukraine 150B in arms and got 300B back. EU paid a portion of this.