redditalpha logoredditalpha
← Back to dashboard
Share
160%
r/chinastocksr/chinastocks· u/Distinct_Berry3054· 14d ago💡 Due Diligence 15

Luckin, Ruixin, Chinese coffee chain

Investor summaryBullish

Author predicts Luckin Coffee could be a 10-bagger due to massive growth in China's coffee market, while praising Moomoo's trading tools.

Bull points
  • China's per capita coffee consumption is significantly lower than the US and other Asian countries, indicating massive room for growth.
  • If per capita consumption reaches 150 cups annually, it implies a 30% annualized growth rate for the industry.
  • Luckin is the dominant coffee chain in China and could capture this industry growth if it maintains its market share.
Post body

On average, a person in china drink 15 cups of coffee per year, while in US, people drink 300 cups of coffee annually.

In asian countries (which is a more accurate and realistic comparison such a Taiwan, south korea,malaysia, people drink \\\~200 cups per year.

If that number reach 150cups in the next decade, that will be a 30% annualised growth. Assuming that Luckin grew itself market share in line with the coffee industry in china, and not have its market share cannibalised by other coffee beverage providers, this stock is a potential 10 bagger in the next decade or so

I am participating in my stock broker contest to introduce a stock, and share my experience using their app, so please bear with me.

Moomoo provides an cheap way to buy into luckin, the dominant coffee chain in china. Moomoo provides free access to morningstar analysis reports which are particularly useful and accurate in assessing asian or chinese companies/sector.

Discussion · top comments15 selected
u/Right-Minute-6184 8· 14d ago

Luckin has a historical record of bad management engage in fraud. Although i agree that, the last management has been completely revamp, and the stock did very well since.

u/Familiar-Bug4635 3· 14d ago

LUCKIN certainly grew from its ashes since the fraud scandal. I am confident in this pick. Thanks for sharing

u/Naive_Sun_2932 3· 14d ago

I tried their coffee in singapore. Interesting because they allow people to buy only via app. Too much ice tho

u/troublesome58 2· 14d ago

Do you think Chinese people don't drink coffee because they never know what coffee was until now? If not, why would popularity suddenly grow?

u/shaghaiex 1· 13d ago

Trend.

u/Illustrious-Boss9356 1· 13d ago

Just a heads up, the FORMER Luckin management team (accounting fraud ones) started a competitor called Cotti Coffee and now they're everywhere here.

Source: In China for the summer and I'm trying to make videos now. One on Investing and one on Chicken. Trying to get better so if you have a chance take a look and lemme know your thoughts!

u/SessionNecessary7461 1· 12d ago

Cotti is actually not bad - as far as quick/fast coffee goes. But Luckin still the king when it comes to price and locations. Every waidi cun has at least 1 luckin

u/JulSGP 1· 13d ago

Let’s be honest

Their coffee is crap and diluted and lots of ice

At least that was my past few experiences outside China

Only saving grace is they are cheap as they entice customers with lots of coupons/discounts

For quality, I dont think its worth my investment in their stock but I can underatand their biz model and cheaper costs will attract attention in Western markets

I feel Chagee is a much better investment and waiting for them to break into Europe/US

u/Scared_Emphasis_909 1· 13d ago

This will be the Starbucks of China, being worth hundred of billions. Really nice pick

u/shaghaiex 1· 13d ago

7Eleven, Lawson is also selling coffee and they have MANY outlets.

u/Used-Lab-6597 1· 13d ago

Yeah, I have bought luckin 2 years ago and till now I have more than doubled my returns. Its free money basically

u/BackgroundSeries2 1· 13d ago

Luckin coffee is so diluted. It feels like im buying ice, with coffee as the garnish

u/shaghaiex 1· 13d ago

I tried 澳白 and I am not impressed.

u/Wide_Coast5715 1· 13d ago

What do u think will drive growth in the future? Per store growth or more stores

u/zeco69 1· 14d ago

Coffee is getting big. But china ppl still prefers tea or milk tea