r/nio
Comprehensive NIO Delivery & Valuation Tracker
Author shares a spreadsheet tracking NIO's historical deliveries, projecting 2026-2027 growth, and modeling an $8.80-$14.80 price target.
- Detailed delivery projections show strong growth trajectory, targeting 524k+ in 2026 and 665k in 2027.
- Valuation model using 1.00x-1.25x P/S ratios and additional revenue streams implies significant upside to $8.80-$14.80.
- Stable Average Selling Price (ASP) estimated at ~$40,000 supports robust revenue generation.
I’ve put together a detailed spreadsheet to track and project NIO’s growth. Here’s a quick summary of what’s included:
- Historical Delivery Data: Complete monthly delivery records from 2018 through 2025, providing a clear view of NIO's growth trajectory over the years.
- 2026 & 2027 Projections:
* Detailed monthly forecasts for 2026 across three scenarios: Bull (524k+), Base (511k+), and Bear (498k+).
* Preliminary estimates for 2027, targeting approximately 665,000 deliveries.
- Valuation Model:
* A price target calculator based on Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratios (ranging from 1.00x to 1.25x).
* Calculations for TTM (Trailing Twelve Months) Revenue, including multipliers for additional revenue streams like battery swaps and services.
- Key Financial Metrics:
* Tracking of Average Selling Price (ASP) (estimated at \~$40,000).
* Real-time monitoring of Market Cap, Shares Outstanding, and potential stock price upside (e.g., targets ranging from $8.80 to $14.80 based on different scenarios).
- Operational Insights: Includes a breakdown of working days per month for 2026 to ensure more accurate delivery forecasting.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ER5iv2T-AQy3cyRRTEWH5mQDXfCtcU8SleegEVsXsOg/edit?usp=sharing
Wow, you sure are very optimistic on the delivery figures with your bear case at the highest-end of Nio's own management forecast.
A few thousand here more or less won't make a big difference, but what I find interesting is the estimated operating profit roughly reaching 800-900M USD for this year. If they can achieve this then I don't see why the stock should reached double digits since the PE will be around 20-30x.
Thanks for your homework
500 K plus is not very optimistic . Are you reading tag ES8 is still selling over 10 K , 7 months in a row , and ES 9 , ama $72-90K flagship has a 17 week backlog !! That’s not even what the Management was expecting …They’re Not WRONG , like all of us they’re pleasantly SURPRISED
The numbers are very optimistic. 460k is above most analyst figures let alone 500k. 500k should be the bull case. Only 150k have been delivered in the first five months.
I have a similar 1b Usd profit for the year in my figures though.
The delivery boost in the second half of 2026 is mainly attributed to expanding several models like the ES9, Onvo L80, and the ES8 5 seater version. Additionally, the NIO CEO said that we can expect around 50% year over year average growth, hence around 500K deliveries.
He stated between 40%-50% annual growth. Above 500k is above the 50% mark. To get 500k you are betting on 50 k per month until the end of the year. This is possible but definitely not the base or bear case. This should be the bull case.
Maybe you're right, let's see... I've got others who are even more bullish here. We just gotta hope for the best
Amazing work! Thanks for sharing! Will look into it
Totally agree 500K + target for 2026 sales . This big increase in sales will be accompanied by significant increased on ASP , thanks to highest priced NIO ES8/ES9 and ONVO L80/L90
However P/S ratio of 1-1.25x is extremely low when NIO becomes profitable for the whole year ! I know it’s a Chinese company, so I won’t say 15x like pumpy-dumpy TSLA is trading at, but I would assign a minimum of 3x P/S
I will believe this high PS when I see it, I've been assigning high valuations for a long time now and have almost always been disappointed, so I keep it at this level for now
June 49k-50k, 12k-14k es9 they had 6k ready to be shipped in may,10k es8, 13k onvo,6k firefly,7k other models.
To me this feels definetely possibile.