r/nio
Why is everyone blinded: monster June and Q2 coming
Author predicts record-breaking June and Q2 deliveries for NIO, driven by new models and cost savings from in-house chips.
- June deliveries estimated at 50-52K, setting a new all-time record and driving 92-100% YoY growth.
- Q2 deliveries projected to reach 115-118K, representing 60-64% YoY growth.
- Profitability boosted by $1400 per vehicle cost savings from replacing Nvidia chips with in-house Shenxji chips, alongside a sales mix shift towards higher-priced models.
Let us have a careful look at the May numbers;
Fantastic May numbers could’ve been even better, however, properly like most of you , I totally forgot 1-5 May (Worker’s Day) was another Chinese public holiday.
Let’s see where we are heading for overall Q2 ;
management estimated 110-115K deliveries.
April-May total 67,061 ; That leaves 48K (115-67) for June
My estimate for June is 50-52K, provided that there is no logistic bottleneck. Yes, I’m confident we will have a new all-time record, surpassing Dec 2025 sales of 48,135! Full month for ES9 and L80 (which launched in 15 May) will be main contributors to the increase! Remember over 100 % increase in ONVO sales in May!
In summary,
92-100 % increase YoY for June (from June 2025 sales of 24,925)
And 60-64 % YoY for Q2 (115-118 range) compared to 72,056 for Q2 2025.
As for financial ; remember the already reduced R&D and admin costs, now also saving $1400 per vehicle by replacing Nvidea chip with 4x more powerful home grown Shenxji chip, and sales increases coming mostly from the highest priced models in NIO and ONVO line up ES8/ES9 and L80/L90. Do the math!
Investors will regret not having understood this and end up paying double at least when the June delivery numbers come out !
Honestly I say this as someone who holds over 10,000 shares, I have a feeling even if we have a monster June and Q2 coming, what makes you believe the share price won’t continue to do what it’s doing now? Just make a jump one day then go back down slowly the coming days?
Don't forget that on the 11th we'll find out the price of the new L60. The renovation of this car looks spectacular, inheriting Nio's Shenji chip and the extras from the L90, such as the second-row screen or the LiDAR radar with the new autonomous driving software. The second half of the year is going to be spectacular. The stock price is a mix of manipulation and ignorance from foreign investors in the Chinese EV sector, take advantage of the opportunity.
I think I’ll start shorting this 🙈
Im so sick of this fucking share. I'm all in on this shit, and the opportunities I've missed because of this miserable share is just unexplainable. Each time nio reports excellent news, its competitors stock gets the limelight
I’m on the same boat , losing money .. I’m puzzled how powerful these institutions can be in controlling the trading while accumulating. I believe that’s the most likely reason it’s not moving .
Institutions are nowhere near holding a huge chunk of shares as they do in most companies, because they didn’t believe NIO would be where it’s now after seeing it lose money for many years . Now that the tables have turned , they’re caught short and cannot all of a sudden buy 100s of millions of shares without making the stock go thru the roof.
Maybe in wrong but that’s the only reason I can think of . Shorts reducing their position (now an insignificant 6 % of outstanding shares) is a testimony that even shorts are being convinced NIO has nowhere to go but up!
It’s very painful specially, as you said, seeing all hyped up junk companies gone up over 100 % in the techno sector
This share truly needs a short squeeze. It deserves a short squeeze to 100
There can be no short squeeze with 6 % os shares shorted ! They can be covered in 4-5 trading days .
However shorts already having covered a lot (from 12-15% last year) to now 6 percent is clear sign that they have given up hope in against and realized NIO is now a different animal
I think because all this numbers they are seeing right now are not sustainable. Once the new model launch hype dies down, the steady state delivery figures will jump off the cliff. All the capex and r&d cuts are just to prop up the financials in the short term. Eventually it will need to go back up doubly to compensate for this period of low investment. You gain some now, you lose some later on.
After 7 months of sales , ES 8 is selling over 10K a month. ES is ultra luxury and more expensive, so yes it will come
Down for this model, However you need to see the BIG PICTURE! NIO’s sales are growing MORE THAN ANY LUXURY BRAND !
I wouldve quadrupled my money in CHPY instead of holding this stock..
The numbers are telling the true story behind the company. And the numbers are fine. Keep loading until the market recognise it.
Next catalyst, 11 June for Onvo L60
You’re right my friend,
Talk down on Tesla all you want atleast their shareholders make something. We make negative money.
i am buying more and more in a few
Weeks it could be to late and i cannot afford to risk more