r/investing
Market Realities: The S&P 500's Actual Trajectory vs. Its Smoothed Growth Curve
Chart compares S&P 500 actual price path vs. long-term smoothed exponential trend, highlighting deviations during major macro cycles.
This chart projects the actual price path alongside a mathematically smoothed, long-term exponential trend line.
The blue dashed line shows the "ideal" trend line based on historical averages, cutting straight through the macroeconomic cycles (like the 2000 bubble and the 2008 crash).
Thoughts?
Hmm.. where is the chart? Nothing is showing here.
https://www.reddit.com/user/Effective_Egg_7166/
Nothing to see here. Move along. Move along...
https://www.reddit.com/user/Effective_Egg_7166/
Damm! Sorry guys I just realized I can’t attach images to the post :/
Maybe my bad karma!? The option is greyed out.
https://www.reddit.com/user/Effective_Egg_7166/
There's no petrodollar recycling and central banks dumping US treasuries to buy oil may tank that graph by a lot. Based on the timeline in that graph, majority of the time rates have been going down. What would it look like if rates steadily move up year after year? The US has to replace petrodollar recycling with some other scheme.
Sorry I forgot to attach the charts! I redid the post post:
https://www.reddit.com/user/Effective_Egg_7166/
https://www.reddit.com/user/Effective_Egg_7166/
Here we go! Check this sub for the actual graphs. Sorry again and thanks!
I am interested to see the graph. It would be interesting if you could also adjust the graph based on the value of the US dollar to further smooth large valuation swings like we’ve seen in recent months.
https://www.reddit.com/user/Effective_Egg_7166/