the recent correction in semiconductor stocks is a good buy the dip opportunity

here's my breakdown for the demand for compute that is yet to enter the scene in the coming few months

1. the moment mythos class models hit the market, and their prices come down a bit...the compute demand for them are gonna be staggering...even if the industry gets a breakthrough that makes models run more efficiently, the moment they become cheaper they would see a surge in demand thereby still creating a net upward trend for compute...mythos class models will be 5 to 10x the size of opus..so 5-10x the amount of HBM, RAM etc

1. Until now agentic coding was considered a major market for these models, going ahead this would shrink as a %. Recently heard the CFO of anthropic talk about the growth of token usage for non coding tasks, like PDF report generation etc and according to him it's outpacing tokens growth for coding, and they expect it to outstrip token usage on coding in a few months.. add to that ppl like ken griffin talking about how most of the reports that used to take phds and highly qualified individuals hours of work to research now happens in a few mins..

tech companies were the first to adopt these AI tools and track token spend...but soon itll be banks, insurance companies, regular old school businesses, news paper agencies, media, states attorney's office, other govt offices etc etc....the bureaucratic red tape in all these old school industries havent yet allowed for full penetration yet

1. In the tech industry, about 2 trillion is spent on software engineers compensation annually..if AI can optimize that by 15 to 20% which it already can in its current capability thats like about 400 billion in savings...

so let's assume they take 50% of that as revenue..split between 2/3 AI labs is still $50B+ in just coding spend...the more AI labs make money the more compute theyll need..also with increased productivity better products and tools hitting the market quicker, more value being created everywhere

1. Now even if model intelligence plateaus here..doesnt move up a needle...AI companies will shift to video generation and image generation...the compute required for thsi even more humungous...labs like openai and anthropic arent yet focusing on this cuz they are short on compute and see general intelligence as priority right now.. but just a few years down the lane i think most of your favourite youtubers would be using AI animations in their videos/intros etc..im already seeing that, but less than 0.5% of Youtubers are in on it.. from industries like website design to video animations...it used to take hours to build vector assets for these animations, now it's insanely easier compared to the old school method...as these abilities become more accessible and easier to build, the demand for them will increase exponentially...More Video creators, more website animators, content creators etc can create better visuals with it...5 years down the lane, your CNN's new logo, intro, etc would be AI, their graphs would be AI, if there's an assasination, they would generate a 3D visual of where the bullet came from within minutes of them getting information...Visual content is everywhere...Today's video gen models arent deterministic...needs a bit of skill and proper prompting...have to create 10 editions for 1 proper output...but in 3 years theyll get there and every single thing u see around might be AI generated..like even the sticker thats on your new frying pan box or adverts

all together demand for chips is gonna go keep going up for at least 5 years from now

ppl keep saying it's a bubble it's a bubble..this in itself makes the bubble unlikely cuz there's so much over cautious analysis being thrown around...it's not like 2007...ya companies like spacex will pay..but compute providers are in for a longer bull run