r/valueinvesting
Finding value in recent IPO
Analyzing post-IPO pullbacks in NTSK and CHYM as value opportunities due to strong fundamentals, profitability, and discounted valuations relative to growth.
- Netskope trades at a significant discount (63% below IPO) despite maintaining 28% revenue growth and positive free cash flow.
- Chime has achieved GAAP profitability, authorized a $200M buyback, and trades at a low 3x sales multiple with diversified monetization.
- Both companies possess strong balance sheets (net-cash for Netskope) and are mispriced by the market due to sector-wide skepticism rather than company-specific failures.
- Netskope faces intense competition in the SASE market and concerns regarding slowing Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) growth.
- Chime's valuation relies on successful expansion beyond interchange fees into lending and investing, which carries execution risk.
- Recent IPOs often suffer from lock-up expiration overhangs and volatile institutional sentiment, regardless of fundamental metrics.
Hello everyone - wondering if anyone has been looking at recent ipo’s where stocks have pulled back considerably, putting them into value zone.
I was looking at CHYM and Netskope and both seem to be good business with fair valuation at the current stock price. Anyone tracking either of these , would be good to exchange insights?
NTSK (Netskope): At your entry reference of $9.64, Netskope is roughly 63% below its September 2025 IPO price of $26. The market is pricing in concerns about slowing ARR growth and intense SASE competition, despite revenue still growing \~28%, ARR approaching $850M, a large net-cash balance sheet, and positive FCF generation. The buy case is that investors are treating Netskope like a slowing security vendor when it is still growing faster than most public cybersecurity peers and trading at a discounted revenue multiple.
CHYM (Chime): Chime trades roughly 30–35% below its June 2025 IPO price of $27 (based on the recent \~$18 trading range used in the analysis). Unlike many fintech IPOs, Chime has already reached GAAP profitability, is growing revenue around 25%, and authorized a $200M buyback. The buy case is that the market still views Chime as a consumer fintech dependent on interchange revenue, while management is beginning to monetize a 10M+ customer base through lending, investing, and premium services. If profitability continues improving, the current valuation (\~3x sales) looks low relative to the growth profile.
How about pre IPO/ Merger ? JFB merging with AI drone company ?
Yes, I have a keen interest in mergers / demergers. Made really good returns on Topgolf, 3M, Du Pont and decent on Aptiv , Comcast.
This one though , I will stay away for now , had done some research. Your thesis ?
Valuation math seems off : XTEND’s private valuation was $200–300M…..merger implies $1.5B based on private placement pricing ……5–7x step-up with no intervening profit story ?
Wow ! thanks for the analysis. Seems like the are getting some contracts and some press.
JFB Construction Xtend invited to participate in DoD Drone Dominance Program
JFB Construction (JFB) announced that Xtend was selected as one of a limited group of companies invited to participate in the Phase II Qualifier of the U.S. Department of Defense’s…
8 days ago - TheFly
XTEND Selected for Phase II Qualifier of U.S. Department of Defense $1 Billion Drone Dominance Program
XTEND selected among a limited group of companies invited to participate in next stage of major U.S. Department of Defense initiative expected to support procurement of more than 200,000 drones by 202...
9 days ago - GlobeNewsWire
JFB Announces XTEND UK Expansion Following £1.93M Order Supporting UK Defense Activities and Launch of Localized XFAB
AI robotics company validated by the U.S. DoW and trialed with British Forces establishes sovereign manufacturing hub to support NATO-aligned autonomous defense capabilities
17 days ago - GlobeNewsWire
JFB Construction secures seven-figure order from Asia-Pacific defense customer
JFB Construction (JFB) has secured a seven-figure order from a defense customer in the Asia-Pacific region for the delivery of compact autonomous intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance systems...
23 days ago - TheFly
XTEND Secures Seven-Figure Defense ISR Order in Asia-Pacific
Order reflects continued demand for compact autonomous intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities in complex operational environments TAMPA, Fla., May 14, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) ...
23 days ago - GlobeNewsWire
JFB Construction Holdings Quarterly report: Q1 2026
JFB Construction Announces 115% increase in Revenue Q1 2026 over Q1 2025
26 days ago - GlobeNewsWire
XTEND Secures $8.25 Million Order, Marking Continued Expansion of Autonomous Drone Programs Across Europe
4 weeks ago - GlobeNewsWire
XTEND Secures $2.2 Million Contract for Advanced Autonomous Aerial Defense Systems
XTEND Positioned to Address the New Reality of Mass Drone Warfare Following Large-Scale Attacks in the Middle East TAMPA, Fla., May 01, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- JFB Construction Holdings (Nasdaq: JFB)...
5 weeks ago - GlobeNewsWire
JFB and XTEND Announce Filing of Registration Statement on Form S-4 with the SEC in Connection with their Proposed Business Combination
\~ Filing Represents Critical Step in the Business Combination \~ \~ Combined Company to be Renamed XTEND AI Robotics and Expected to Trade on the New York Stock Exchange under Ticker “XTND” \~ TAMPA, Fla...
5 weeks ago - GlobeNewsWire
JFB Construction announces XTEND secured contract with IMOD for $1.67M
JFB Construction (JFB) announces that XTEND has secured a contract with the Israeli Ministry of Defense, IMOD, to supply drone systems and services, with a total contract value of approximately…
6 weeks ago - TheFly
JFB Announces XTEND Wins Israeli Ministry of Defense Contract to Deploy Operational Drone Systems
$1.67M Contract Expands XTEND's Footprint with Israeli Ministry of Defense, Reflecting Growing Demand for Deployable Autonomous Systems in Operational Environments TAMPA, Fla., April 21, 2026 (GLOBE N...
Thanks for sharing these insights - honestly I am unable to get my head around the valuation calculations , have this on my watchlist for now :)
This is a subject I am not too familiar with, as it goes against my investing habits.
I would say, though, that companies that just IPO'd have a lot to prove and the uncertainties outnumber the value or quality evidence one should look for.
Companies go public precisely because the market is overheated. Witness SpaceX.
Additionally, IPO companies have an overhang: most of the shares cannot be traded for the lock-up period, typically 180 days. As the shares become unlocked in 9 out of 10 cases, the price of the stock plummets. If you are really interested in IPO shares, I would look at companies that went public two to three years ago. You may (MAY is the operative word) find some worthwhile investments there.
Yeah,I agree. Both Chym and Netskope were listed apprx year ago and trading significantly down :)
IPOs the worst time to invest. Especially nowadays it feels pump and dump, most IPOs
True - trying to find the one’s which have corrected significantly since the listing. Both of these were listed approx an year ago