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r/valueinvestingr/valueinvesting· u/wisesheets· 7d agoDiscussion 18

The most underrated investing tool: a checklist

Investor summaryNeutral

Advocates for using investment checklists to filter noise and focus on key factors like competitive advantage, citing personal lessons from Amplitude.

Bear points
  • Valuation metrics alone are insufficient for predicting stock performance without positive industry tailwinds.
AMPL价值 / 回购
Post body

The most underrated tool you can use when investing is a checklist.

As Charlie Munger said "I’m a great believer in solving hard problems by using a checklist."

And make no mistake, investing is a hard problem.

One of the biggest reasons for this is the sheer amount of information available. You can analyze financial statements, earnings calls, management interviews, competitors, market trends, valuation multiples, industry reports, customer reviews, Reddit threads, and a lot more.

At some point, the amount of information becomes very overwhelming.

That’s where a checklist helps.

It lets you cut out the noise and focus on the few things that actually matter.

A good analogy is learning how to drive.

When you first start driving, you pay attention to everything:

  • Cars ahead of you
  • Cars behind you
  • Cars beside you
  • Weird noises
  • Potholes
  • Speed
  • Road signs
  • How your dad reacts when you make certain moves

But once you get better, you focus mostly on the critical things:

  • What’s in front of you
  • Potential road hazards
  • Direction

Everything else becomes more instinctive.

I think investing works in a similar way.

A checklist gives you a baseline to test against. If an investment does not go well, you can look back and ask:

“Did I miss something?”

“Was my checklist incomplete?”

“Was there a factor I underestimated?”

For example, I invested in Amplitude 4 years ago, and the stock has mostly moved sideways. That taught me that valuation alone is not enough. Ideally, you also want positive industry tailwinds.

Now, I don’t think there is a perfect investing checklist.

If there were, everyone would use it, and the edge would disappear.

But I do think there are good and bad checklist items. It also depends heavily on your investment style, the industries you invest in, and what you are trying to achieve.

Here’s the checklist that has been most helpful for me:

  1. Does the company have a long-lasting competitive advantage?
  2. How good are the products or services?
  3. How competent is the management team?
  4. Is the valuation reasonable?
  5. Is the market for the company’s products or services getting better or worse?
  6. What is the competition doing to take market share?
  7. Is the company financially healthy? Can it withstand a financial storm?

Each of these can be broken down further.

For example, for management, I look at things like:

  • Are they buying back shares?
  • Are they reinvesting profits?
  • If they are reinvesting, what is their track record on return on invested capital?
  • Do they have relevant background and experience in the industry?

Here are some of the resources I personally use:

Management: LinkedIn, Wikipedia, and YouTube interviews to understand who is running the company, how they think, and what their views are.

Competition differences: Technical comparisons, online reviews, and Reddit when it makes sense.

Valuation: I use Wisesheets with a dynamic model where I can change the ticker, adjust the assumptions, and complete my valuation.

Competitive advantage: I try to use the product or service myself whenever possible. I also ask: if I were trying to compete with this company, what would I do? If I were one of its competitors, what would I do?

I look for advantages that are hard to replicate, such as patents, intellectual property, network effects, brand recognition, supplier relationships, manufacturing capacity, and more.

Market direction: I look at market reports and try to understand what is changing in the industry, what segments are growing or declining, and where demand is heading.

Financial health: I use Wisesheets to analyze the company’s financial statements, including profit, free cash flow, margins, growth, solvency ratios, liquidity, returns, and more.

My goal is to figure out whether the company is healthy enough to survive an economic blow.

I’d love to hear from you, what’s on your investing checklist? And what lessons have you learned the hard way?

Discussion · top comments15 selected
u/Longjumping-Fact-582 11· 7d ago

Look up Phil fishers 15 points, or you can find it in his book common stocks and uncommon profits.

Warren buffet once said he is “15% Phil fished and 85% Ben graham”

Ultimately I see many people here spend far too much time focused on price and not enough time spent on what you get for that price, remember price is only one part of the equation, (price is what you pay, value is what you get)

Graham was mostly only focused on the quantitiative “cheapness” of what he was buying Phil fisher focuses mostly on the “qualitativel” or the quality of what he was buying looking to find businesses with long-term growth prospects that could grow for decades and have large addressable markets.

Both sides of the coin are obviously important, if you pay far too much for even a great business you are likely to fall short, while in turn a gruesome business even at a seemingly bargain price, may not be sufficiently cheap to mean you end up earning commensurate returns

u/Adventurous-Guava374 5· 7d ago

You can answer “I don’t know” on a first question for every single company on planet earth

u/wisesheets 1· 6d ago

Certain things are universally harder to compete against like parents, network effects, unique operational expertise etc those things can take years and years to replicate

u/LastMeasurement8 5· 7d ago

How long does it take you to go through all that though? How much of that is noise and how much of that is the 20% of effort that leads to the 80% of the outcome?

u/Ill_Station_6165 13· 7d ago

Look the user handle this is an advert for wisesheets

u/mdn845 4· 7d ago

More AI slop…

u/JamesWardVI 3· 7d ago

The sequence changed everything for me. I used to run through everything in parallel and kept falling in love with businesses because the valuation looked nice. Now, if it fails the moat check early, I stop. saves a lot of time.

Two things I added after a few painful experiences: a circle of competence check before anything else, and a stress test at the end. The first one I learned the hard way - I bought into a business I thought I understood and realized halfway through a downturn, I couldn't actually explain what would have to be true for my thesis to break. Now I won't start the analysis if I can't answer that first.

I added the stress test because I noticed my checklists were basically just confirming what I already wanted to believe. Now, once I've built the bull case, I spend time actively arguing against it. What would the smartest bear say? It's uncomfortable, but it's caught me a few times.

What made industry tailwinds the lesson from amplitude - is it a hard filter now, or just something you weight more?

u/Different-Monk5916 3· 7d ago

more or less the same, plus a risk table.

u/michahell 3· 5d ago

Absolutely! This is exactly where I am at. However, I am stuck at what is a good system to build this checklist with.

My todo app? (Todoist currently)

My favourite second-brain tool? (currently Obsidian)

Something that is more easily duplicateable and versionable? (Google docs)

My checklist requirements would be:

  • it needs a modifiable template, ideally date-versioned, so I can add and remove things due to learnings and insights
  • I need to easily be able to “instantiate” into a concrete Checklist for a certain ticker or company _for a certain date_ and then be able to file it, as well, for historic purposes.
  • heck, let’s say that you are following a company and you have used your checklist a few times already and it hasn’t passed. Ideally, I need to be able to view _that_ information too, in a quick glance.

The problem I have is that, from simple systems, I’m immediately halfway rebuilding a full stock analysis product just for myself.

How to keep it simple and effective while at the same time having _some_ sort of _reusability_ and _historical_ insight, is my main issue

u/Dakadoodle 2· 5d ago

Mind if I reach out to you about your tools and experiences?

u/michahell 1· 5d ago

of course, but… which tools and experiences?

I have none :sadley: because I can’t decide and move ahead!

u/wisesheets 2· 6d ago

Thank you

u/raytoei 2· 7d ago

Thanks for this reminder.

u/wisesheets 2· 7d ago

Glad Charlie talked about this in his book

u/ElonMuskTheNarsisist 1· 6d ago

Checklists are nice and all but reality is there are only a few things that truly matter when identifying a great deal