r/stockmarket
SpaceX Could be $22.5 billion on selling pressure in the first 5 minutes - A 16x of the highest averaged minute trading volume on a given day (NVDA)
Predicts massive selling pressure for SpaceX IPO due to retail flipping, citing $22.5B potential dump vs NVDA's volume records.
- Retail allocation of $22.5B creates immense immediate selling pressure if investors flip shares post-IPO.
- Potential sell-off volume (16x NVDA's peak minute average) far exceeds historical liquidity absorption capacity.
- Additional $52.5B from underwriters adds further latent supply risk beyond initial retail dumping.
Everybody on here seems to have the same idea for SpaceX - recognize the IPO is overpriced but still want to participate on the belief the IPO will pop - i.e., participate to sell quickly after open to capitalize on the pop.
But, $22.5 billion is allocated to retail so, if all retail has this idea, that's potentially $22.5 billion in selling pressure in the first 5 minutes. If even half of retail has this idea that's still $11.5 billion in selling pressure. This does not include the remaining $52.5 billion allocated through underwriters that can technically be sold at anytime and is also potentially additional selling pressure.
In contrast, the highest ever notional amount of trading volume ever recorded for a single stock was $110 billion for NVDA. Averaging tha $110 billion across the 390 minutes in a trading day gives $282 million per minute, or $1.4 billion in 5 minutes - THE $22.5 BILLION ALLOCATED TO RETAIL IS POTENTIALLY 16X SELLING PRESSURE OF THE HIGHEST MINUTE AVERAGED STOCK VOLUME EVER RECORDED.
That's a lot of dumping pressure. 💩 This will be wild to watch.
I think the stock is going to drop like a rock once it's available for retailers to buy. And then it will be halted. Initially the price will jump up like crazy before it's available to buy so that the insiders can sell off Right away. There's a rolling lockout period for employees.
Those who can get some at $135 will be able to flip for a profit. For those that will buy at start of trading when the initial opening price will be bloated to the moon, they will be the bag holders or won't be able to sell it at a profit.
That's more reality. It's going to be bloated at the open, I'm guessing in the 170-200 range. Way too many fanboys to ignore.
That could be the case. IPO prices are volitile. Stock could pump at IPO date and then drop for years. Only ones benefiting are pre-IPO investors.
S&P came out saying they will not be making an exception to the 1 year evaluation period. SpaceX will not be part of the S&P500 this year. The NASDAQ I think yes
As an absolute novice along for the ride, I’m also going to buy the dip if it pops. Nothing I can’t afford to lose, but I’m up for losing 50% if it comes to it.
Only investment against my conscience I’ve made, and am betting on the sheer stupidity of mankind.
If I’m wrong, I’ll be happy to know the world isn’t entirely crazy. If I’m right, I’m out at 200% in Y1 and good luck to the rest of ya!
Like betting against your own team.
IPO + Elon stock tells me it’s gonna have that Tesla energy. Up 15%+ end of day
More like %20 plus by closing the 1st day...
Key word is "soft.". I don't think most retail gives a shit about some temporary lockout from IPOs.
And once all 188 combined shares are sold, business as usual will continue
You can sell quickly during an IPO. If you're allocated shares you can sell them as soon as it starts trading.
So to put your position differently, you believe that the IPO offering price is actually a good deal, based on fundamentals?
Most of retail isn't going to flip their shares.
locked at 135
First day pop then watch the second day if it goes up a bunch it seems like shorting maybe based on almost every IPO recently they all pop the first few days then crash rapidly as investors, institutions, and such get out. They crash then usually level out… then wait for the 6 month mark for the rest of the company to be opened to sell.
nasdaq better not halt that shit either. Let the market decide what the true value is.
I’ve bought SPCE and I’m going to buy some SPCEx to go with my SPCE, just in case space becomes a place for my taste
Retail don’t care about lock up, much like buying stocks when funds haven’t hit the account
My bull case....
Elon owns 42% of SpaceX.
<5% of SpaceX is being sold.
Elon is going to borrow against his existing shares to keep the price up, possibly even inflate it. He does this by borrowing with the bank against his existing shares. How much can you make 5% go up when you own 42%?
But that's illegal and he would get caught by the toothless SEC .... 😂.
Unless he buys an ETF which holds SpaceX and Tesla, then he doesn't have to disclose it.
Once SpaceX has a actually gone up, then he can borrow even more money against those new shares to regain full control of his baby Tesla.
I have no opinion on the plausability of this scheme, but your comment did ignite a very funny thought in my head. Namely that Elons greatest desire is to take tesla private under his full control. What if there is someone out there (bill gates?) that is artificially propping up tesla prices to make it unaffordable to take private, and all of elons antics are to tank the share price, but it keeps not working, to his ever growing frustration. Honest this seems like a better explanation for his behavior than many I have heard.
So youre saying wait 2 weeks?
Maybe said a different way, doesn’t the small float lead to a lot of volatility? Relatively small volume seems like it could push price around a lot