In case you were thinking of selling

I mean this advice basically boils down to, don’t panic sell after the market tanks. If you’re worried about the market tanking and nothing has happened yet, you’re probably ok to sell and wait it out. But if the market has already moved against you, just ride it out.

he didn't flip trades that often. You have to be borderline scalping to hit the worst days and miss the best days or vice versa. Most of these days are happening back to back. That is an extreme level of bad luck that even WSB can't match.

This was me in 2022

The first time I've seen green was in June:)

Maybe international bonds lol

If that's what you mean by timing the market then yes, so does every successful trade.

Factually, all the best days have seen in downtrends that could have been avoided with daily moving averages.

I look forward to crashes. I toss in as much cash as possible. Waaaay easier to buy really low than to sell really high.

The best days happen amid the worst days, they both come in high volatility periods that usually correspond to downturns. If you miss the best days, you're likely missing the worst days too, but if you sell after a series of down days, you might miss a big up day that would erase some of the losses.

You also own those blue chips when you hold VTI - they make up a chunk of that ETF

Thanks. That has been my approach for decades. Now that i am nearing the drawdown years, it is harder. Bonds are painful especially if rates will probably start rising. I added some international. I have a house fund to make swapping homes in retirement easier which is just a money market.

I find it interesting to read the logic when it is more thought out than just SELL! I have spent a ton of time reading bogelhead approaches and it has served me well to this point but like I said preparing foir drawdown is another beast.

Keep that dry powder handy. Have your limit orders ready. Pounce when the market sinks. Those are the best days. Old lady in Oregon

Agree.

Adages exist for a reason. Time in market beats timing market and all that stuff. There is always truth to it. But, equally, there are macro patterns that appear that savvy investors follow and adjust against. If you look at history as the guide then, yes, my advice is stay on the sidelines and wait it out. But you have your own risk tolerance and it could run another 2 years for all I know. I'm happy with my outsize profits and my risk tolerance at my age is lower. But, candidly, I suggested my kids park their Roth IRA's in cash on Thursday, as well. They have many decades to run but their Roths have doubled in about 2 years. That isn't a normal ROI. Patterns suggest when markets like this exist they will drop 20-30% in the next 24 months. Then take about 3-5 years before they start to run again. I suggested they stay out until at least a 20% drop then put it all back in and leave it alone for the next 15 years. Time will tell. But nobody ever went broke taking the doubling of your investments in a few years off the table. But for most people greed will outweigh fear so they keep it in cuz: FOMO. I'm good missing a bit of gains.

This sentence is very philosophical. It is a profound summary of the essence of life and wisdom.

Yes, but I won't let them depreciate there. I will choose asset investment so that they can retain their value or generate returns.

Are you a professional trader?

I don't know where the idea came from that this is what "timing the market" refers to.

If Buffet is invested in 10 companies, A-J, he's in the market. If he thinks that company A is overvalued™, he sells shares of company A, and he's still 90% in the market, because he's not trying to time the market. This gives him the opportunity to buy shares of company K if he thinks it's undervalued™ based on fundamentals.

Cycling his portfolio according to his tastes of what it means to be over or undervalued, and according to his tastes of makes a valuation risky or not, so that he can prioritize companies with greater perceived potential relative to their risk and their price, is not "timing the market." That is "balancing a portfolio", which is a basic skill that everyone needs if their strategy is anything other than 1) buy VOO/IVV/VTI, 2) profit.

Thank you for sharing this.

What struck me most was your point about learning to ask for help and letting go of ego. Many people see mistakes as failures, but you've described them as teachers.

Looking back, was there one particular mistake or experience that changed your perspective the most?

Now do it again but with the worst days? This line is reasoning doesn’t quite hold water. The better argument is the “number of times the investments are touched” argument.

“Please hold the bags” - OP

So what? How about doing this analysis, missing the worst 10 days.

A bit misleading to argue with october 2008 :D we hit much lower prices afterwards. In that case missing these returns for 2 weeks and you look much better^^ Just buying into the bailout/rescue package peak would've performed worse.

Are you being so self-deprecating? What kind of job do you do?

You should see his account history

This is why dead people are better investors

Not billionaires, but people with a brain don't have any issue making money.

Enjoy your DCA

In Wallstreet parlance, they don't ring a bell at the top and bottom of a market.

Team looks experienced. Project focuses on trust and real assets. Visit alchemy.xyz for more.

A lot of posts make it seem like only negative effects come from timing the market. IN reality it should be like a coin toss. 50-50

Why not 1 second interval?*

VOO and chill, stop overthinking it

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April 1st 2025 and 2026 would like a word