What do you think about eVOTL stocks? Is it just hype or the next big thing. (JOBY, ACHR, EVTL)

Joby is the only one with real revenue, but losing 10 times its revenue in operating profit...

Incredibly speculative.

Honda's "flying car" just flew for the first time.

Its full-scale eVTOL hovered for 90 seconds in California — and unlike Joby or Archer, Honda is betting on a gas-turbine hybrid, not batteries alone, to crush the 100km range limit.

At the 2025 Shanghai Auto Show

Chinese automakers unveiled flying cars, 6-wheeled air modules, and AI-powered smart ecosystems.

Big Cathie Woods stocks. ARKK sees redemptions, these fall out of the sky.

I actually put together an analysis package for Joby. Check it out here.

I tried to tackle a lot of the burning questions that come up - especially about operational costs and unit economics. It's certainly not perfect, but I think it's not a terrible starting point until we get actual numbers.

Also, not all eVTOLs are created equal. Beta just had a demonstration recently that shows that their sound profile might not be up to snuff. See here. And HERE.

And to highlight the bear case. I think the real downside scenario is that none of these are able to get certified. It's a completely new class of aircraft, and the burden of proof is incredibly high in aviation now (for good reason).

I also don't think they're a deal of a lifetime or anything. Anywhere between $10 & $30 seems like a decent range for Joby right now. But is 3x upside enough to compensate us for the potential likelihood that these things can't get certified or there's no market if they do hit service? So I think some exposure is a good idea if you're excited about the space, but I wouldn't back up the truck yet. We have at least a year left before certification and likely at least one more dilution event, and then another 5 years before they can fully ramp production to their target of 500 A/C per year. So there's time.

In regards to your number 4. Joby currently has partnerships to install vertiports on top of parking garages. So nodes could be more common and thrown up faster than we imagine.

Either way, it's a 10 year hold...I wouldn't expect some 10-bagger in the next 24 months (though anything is possible in this market).

In terms of which companies to choose. I think Joby is the clear leader by a good margin right now. The market seems to have it right. So if you did want to buy the basket, I'd say to market cap weight it. And Beta might be DOA with their sound profile...I just don't know how they get approved for air taxi services anywhere important with their noise profile. Vertical also seems interesting, but they have a "chicken and egg" issue with capital. They probably need to raise like 3-5x the company's current value to get through certification (likely some time after 2030). They have some capital deal with a partner, but I can't imagine it's too favorable for existing shareholders. But they're so cheap that it might be worth taking a swing. But I also wouldn't be surprised if they end up liquidating in 2 years time.

Not confident the infrastructure (landing pads) and unless fully autonomous also pilot salaries would ever allow eVOTL to be economical

The only value from these stocks will come from defense sector if they pivot into it heavily. eVOTLs cannot use any of the existing infrastructure in most cities as you touched on - adoption would be decades away for civilian use.

That being said, the future of national defense is drones and so there is some potential there but it is all speculative. I would not call any of these stocks a value play.

print money

But not as consistently as you think

I think it's cool tech. I haven't really studied the stocks, but I have studied the industry because I think it's pretty cool.

I think the biggest thing to realize (which I see a ton of people saying it is on reddit) this is probably not going to be a product where everyone is using air taxis, and is most likely not going to be in every city.

This is going to be a product where certain people in highly dense cities need to go from the airport to something like a business meeting, and need to pay the extra $200 to bypass traffic.

This is really mostly going to work in cities like Chicago, new York, la, etc.

For military, it's going to be tranfering people quickly between bases.

The infrastructure is a huge challenge. Not just building the pads, but also building our the airspace. These are way quieter than helicopters, but still produce noise, so there will be community pushback, depending where they want to put the pads.

My biggest fear about this space as an investor is what happens when one eventually crashes and nobody survives? Boeing has 1 crash and the faa investigates like crazy, and changes laws and regulations. I can't imagine what happens to a company like joby. It would also completely shake the public's trust.

I think it's a cool idea, but if someone is investing thinking this is the next tesla, I think they will be disappointed.

ACHR has contracts with Anduril.

I think its a wild pipe dream, and most investors are probably on some acid induced trip.

1. Can you really picture these little things flying around all over the place? Like, really?
2. All it will take is 1 or 2 inevitable crashes or decapitations and these things will be grounded for years.
3. Maybe they plan to use them as little taxis, but if the average joe can go and buy one of these and fly them around, there will be so many accidents, and they would be used to flee crime scenes and interfere with real planes.
4. They have basically tried to reinvent the helicopter, that didn't need reinventing and already had a garbage safety record.

Maybe in like 50 years or so, something like this might exist, but it wont be these little toys and it wont be these companies. Its one of the maddest investments I ever saw.

Some things require no deep dive, just trust your initial instinct, if it looks stupid, it probably is.

Current‑generation eVTOLs can travel around 100 to 250 km (I believe that's 62 miles to 155miles) at most, so they’re mainly designed for short, city‑to‑city or intra‑city transport.

And they have more downtime because refueling is faster than recharging.

Anyone remember the LILM? They also were in the field but went bankrupt.

Joby is dope . Real boss ass investment

There is little doubt in my mind that all of these companies will be bankrupt within the next 5 year.

Or operating as zombie companies that burn cash and have to constantly dilute shareholders just to keep the lights on