r/stocks
What things are SpaceX revenues projected to come from to reach their valuation?
Analyzing SpaceX's $11.4B 2025 revenue mix (Starlink, Launches, AI) and questioning if current projections justify its valuation given growth constraints.
- Starlink holds a dominant 90% market share with potential to expand into terrestrial consumer markets.
- Rocket launch revenue has significant upside potential with a projected 5x increase despite logistical constraints.
- AI division offers high-variance upside with speculative 10x growth potential.
- Starlink faces saturation with limited room for explosive growth beyond doubling the current market size.
- Physical constraints like weather and payload capacity limit the scalability of the rocket launch business.
- Current projected revenue streams appear insufficient to fully justify the company's high valuation multiples.
Of their $11.4 Billion 2025 revenue:
61% - Starlink
22% - Rockets & Launches
17% - AI
5 Year Bull Case:
Starlink already controls 90% of the satellite market. Maybe double the size of the market and capture some of the terrestrial consumer base. Not much room for explosive growth.
A 5X increase isn't a stretch for Rockets and Launches. Weather, conditions, and payload are still constraints.
AI is hard to predict. Maybe a 10x?
This is still far short. What other revenue streams am I missing?
vibes
The vibe market was two years ago
Trust-me-bro-conomics
The real answer is their AI model sucks and they built a ton of compute. So they’re going to lease out the compute to anthropic and Google for $20-30B making up something like 65-70% of their revenue for 2026.
To reach their valuation? Idk maybe in a hundred years they figure something out.
Part of your answer is what infuriates me about the stock market, we’ve started working backwards. Dumping huge sums of money into companies with no real vision and allowing them to become massively successful doing things literally anyone else could do with a fraction of the money if given the chance.
Become? It’s always been about the dollar.
Right, so they’re Coreweave. Or as I like to call neoclouds…temporary capacity businesses, like Public Storage
I guess you haven't heard about the extension cords musk is working on
Yes but not as a main thing just like "at some point in the future"
I’ve honestly never seen Reddit so obsessed over a single company since probably GameStop circa 2021.
It's not a single company it's a single person.
Absolutely. But that's at minimum 7-10 years away.
If you get access to so much platinum the value won't be the same. Such an increase in supply will make the worth much less.
Lol...turn the earth into a giant microwave is the answer.
Fsd rockets are just six months away.