r/stocks
Please show me the other side of the SpaceX IPO that isn’t terrifying, just anxious and not an expert in this stuff
Post outlines a hypothetical 2026 SpaceX/xAI merger IPO scenario where early investors dump shares on retail via index funds.
- Hypothetical early unlock clauses allow insiders to dump shares before standard lockup periods expire.
- Forced buying by index funds at inflated IPO prices creates immediate downside risk for retail investors.
- Integration of loss-making X into SpaceX may dilute value and transfer bad debt to public shareholders.
On my side of the internet, here’s what I’ve seen:
In February 2026, SpaceX merged with Musk's AI startup xAI, which had already acquired X (formerly Twitter). The plan is to integrate all AI initiatives under the SpaceX brand. So the sequence was: Musk bought Twitter, merged Twitter into xAI, merged xAI (with Twitter inside it) into SpaceX.
This means investors like Larry Ellison, Andreessen Horowitz, and Bill Ackman, who backed musk’s twitter purchase and are in the red, are now going to be major shareholders in SpaceX - a company whose been given Nasdaq fast entry, meaning all of our retirement funds will automatically adopt SpaceX 15 days after IPO. This process typically takes 3+ months so that the market can properly evaluate the stock but instead our retirement funds will buy in at a presumably inflated price.
Typically, companies IPO with a 180 day lockup, so that the market can fairly evaluate the true price of a stock. This prevents private shareholders from pulling the rug while the stock is overvalued.
In the case of SpaceX, the rules changed somehow?
Tier 1:
20% of eligible shares can be sold after Q2 earnings are released (mid-July to September)
Tier 2:
If the stock trades 30%+ above IPO price for 5 of 10 consecutive trading days, up to an additional 10% can be sold early
Tier 3:
Up to 7% additional shares unlock at 70, 90, 105, 120, and 135 days post-IPO
Tier4:
Up to 28% more shares after the Q3 earnings call
Tier 5: All restrictions lift at 180 days
So essentially, 15 days after IPO our retirement funds will adopt SpaceX, then musk’s investors who were negative from Twitter(X), will sell off their stock, tanking our retirement funds. Musk repays his billionaire investors with our decades of work. And there’s not a lot we can do about it other than pull out of index funds which loses us money too.
Show me the other side of the coin because right now it feels like the elite just checkmated
How is it going to tank your retirement? It will be approximately 1-2% of the index. If it goes away entirely you will barely notice it if you're in a broad index fund.
True, but then how do you sell and propagate fear and stupidity? Which, reddit is clearly used for.
I look forward to the Reddit shit show when the stock price explodes. So many people are going to lose their minds.
That is 1-2% loss no one uad to sustain. Just because its "only 1-2%" doesnt mean its ok to act as exit liquidity for Musk and his investors.
The only reason why they are releasing only 4-5% and 30% of that going to retail is that no smart money wants to touch this shit with a 10 foot pole.
All the lofty valuations are from banks who will get bonus fees for raising at the inflated valuation.
You shouldn't feel anxious because it's not going to "tank" your index fund holdings even in a worst case scenario, but you should feel outraged because it is a transparent mechanism to steal from passive/retail investors to create exit liquidity for billionaires.
When it comes to SpaceX, people in here are thinking with their emotions instead of rationally
Watch them catching starship with chopsticks. There you go
Reddit in a nutshell.
You people need to stop being online so much
Just don't buy if you don't feel comfortable. You don't need a full case. I am certainly not buying into the IPO at these valuations.
Total Stock Market funds like VTI are exposed though not as exposed as QQQ.
The problem with QQQ is that NASDAQ struck a deal with Musk - listing on NASDAQ in return for rule changes for quick entry into NASDAQ 100. That kind of quid pro quo is egregious for indexes.
VTI is exposed to every shitty company ever to be public. It is, by definition, the total market (in the US). SpaceX could go to $0 and it would barely be a wet fart in VTI.
You’re right that’s why people should liquidate their entire portfolios for the next 6 months
Literally 10,000 people have asked a slight variation of this question in the past month
just don't force overvalued bullshit companies down retail investors throat by changing the rules in flight
Let me preface this by saying that I think Musk is a talentless piece of fascist shit and his company is insanely overvalued, but I think you can also make the case that allowing phased selling will actually stabilize the price of the stock over time rather than having one big trigger date that causes constant selling pressure / collapse as the date gets closer (as is the case for most IPOs).