r/stockmarket
SpaceX $1.75 Trillion valuation means capturing 2.4% of total US GDP by 2035. Is this realistic to you?
Analysis suggests SpaceX's rumored $1.75T IPO valuation is unrealistic, requiring unsustainable 50% annual growth to justify.
- The implied revenue growth of ~50% annually for a decade is historically unprecedented for a company of this scale.
- A $1.75T valuation would require SpaceX to generate more revenue than Amazon, which is economically improbable by 2035.
- The valuation assumes an unrealistically low cost of equity given the high risks associated with space and AI sectors.
Rumors of a June 12 Nasdaq listing for SpaceX at a $1.75 trillion valuation are heating up, so i've been looking at the math behind that number and the assumtions are... aggressive, to say the least.
According to Fortune/New Constructs ....https://news.futunn.com/en/post/74244292/what-does-spacex-s-sky-high-valuation-imply-it-would?level=1&data\_ticket=17809234445217....., even assuming a relatively modest 10% annual return for investors, SpaceX would need to: grow revenue from $18.7B today to roughly $1.1T by 2035, sustain \~50% annual revenue growth for 10 consecutive year and eventually generate more revenue than Amazon does today. So by 2035, a single company would account for roughly 2.4% of projected U.S. GDP. And thats using a surprisingly low cost of equity for a company operating in space, AI, and other high-risk growth markets.
SpaceX may be an extraordinary business. But does a $1.75T valuation imply one of the greatest growth stories in corporate history... or just one of the greatest cases of FOMO pricing?...or we should say that only time will answer...
Tesla has remained irrational longer than I ever thought, why can’t SpX?
I don’t hold either, but I’m no longer surprised
Any thing Elon is hucking I just consider crypto at this point. It’s all propped up by vibes and speculation.
It’s manipulation.
Tesla went public at a valuation of $1.7B... They're trying to IPO SpaceX at 1000x that with far more speculation involved in the growth projections.
Part of Tesla's stiction is that it made a bunch of people a bunch of money. This is not the same thing.
Profits don't matter to people that get their investment advice from TikTok.
Look at Tesla with a P/E of 358. They don't care about fundamentals they care more about donating money to Elon.
We've already been through a period in 2001 when the market was filled with companies that make little to no profits to justify their high valuations.
institutions are the majority holding junk like tesla & spacex, not tiktok retailers.
Look at Tesla with a P/E of 358.
I thought you were kidding, so I went to check. (I don't follow or invest in meme stocks)
It's actually 368. And their income is declining every year...
Completely insane.
Well SpaceX will be even more insane just watch
Well it might if they treat it as a swing trade and not a long term hold
Oof. Good luck. Might need some mighty fast fingers
Yeah, the trade bots are going to beat you, 100%.
Bro, the funniest part about a SpaceX IPO is that everybody says they’re “investing for the next 10–15 years” until the stock drops 6% on Day 2 and suddenly Reddit turns into a full psychological breakdown .You already know exactly how this goes:
IPO launches at an insane valuation, opens +40%, financial Twitter declares Elon the emperor of Earth, somebody mortgages their house to buy calls, then two weeks later, the stock dumps 30% and people start posting:
“Was SpaceX always overhyped?”
Then Elon tweets a random meme at 2AM and the stock rebounds 18% premarket for absolutely no reason. Honestly SpaceX might be the first stock where investors simultanously think: “This is the future of humanity”
and “Should I panic sell before lunch?”
And somehow after all the chaos, volatility, margin calls, Reddit civil wars, and YouTube thumbnails saying “IT’S OVER”… there’s still a decent chance the people who forgot their pasword for 15 years end up outperforming everyone else.
We're gonna have rules again?
The amount of vitriol Reddit has for this stock means it’s gonna double by EOY
Im not disagreeing, but Tesla is 2/3rds of the way valuation wise, and it generates less than $100 billion, so. I just stay away from Elon companies
Yeah, it kind of it is...lol
Holding bags = crayon eating.
Ask any former Nortel Networks bag holders they give you a lesson in investing.